Short and long term forecasts

• Growers can access seasonal climate risk information in 'The Break', newsletters and videos summarising rainfall, crop condition and potential yield for cropping regions across Victoria
• Rain on the Way? Useful weather forecast sites

Making sense of seasonal forecasts and models

Farmers and our agriculture service industries and supply chains do an amazing job of making the most of our "good rainfall" years to help grow record crops. However, increasing rainfall variability is putting greater pressure on farmers and supply chains to be more agile from year to year.

How often do we get average rainfall? (Not as often as we'd like) So do you know the key signals for when the season is about to turn? Do you know the key climate drivers behind the wetter and drier seasons for your region? When is the best time to look at forecasts? 

Modern seasonal forecasting is a powerful tool for Australian agriculture, but used incorrectly or misinterpreted can also lead to poor decisions. These three videos, from a recent conference, feature some of Australia's leading seasonal forecast modelling and extension experts outlining the latest products, and how forecasts can and can't be used.

• Insights for interpreting seasonal forecasts: For the past 10 years, Dale Grey - Seasonal Risk Agronomist with Agriculture Victoria, has been putting out a summation of what the climate models are saying for Victoria. In this video, Dale outlines his experience with interpreting seasonal forecasts.
• Billion dollar variability - The role for modern seasonal forecasting: Graeme Anderson - Climate Specialist, Agriculture Victoria, discusses how seasonal forecasting can help us better understand what we are in for, and plan for in the coming year. Graeme discusses the importance of climate literacy, to better understand what's coming out of seasonal forecasts and making sure we understand when and where these forecasts can be of value in our particular region.
• Latest on seasonal forecast products and outlook: Dr Andrew Watkins - Climate Prediction Services Manager, Bureau of Meteorology, describes the science and complexity around climate models, and the incredible amount of super computing and interpretation that goes into the BoM's forecasting. At the end of the day, it's all about probability…..