Autumn predictability barrier

Farmers are always keener for more accurate seasonal forecasts in Autumn. However, The Break team suggest some caution should be exercised in Autumn as it is often a time of lower forecast model skill and outlook confidence.

With exception of perhaps late May 2015, in most Autumns the Pacific and Indian Oceans have not usually showed their hand enough to let us know what direction they might go for the growing season.

Also an Autumn break can be triggered by one or two individual weather events, rather than a recurring pattern (which seasonal models are better at picking up). In Autumn it’s always best to go with the known known’s to base the majority of your decisions on, such as:

• stored soil moisture
• feed and water stores
• if it hasn’t rained by X I will do Y.

It is a bit like the football season, your team may not look like finals hopefuls at the start of the season, but by about June or July we have a better idea of our teams form and if they will make finals or not.