Climate analogues

An example of a map showing parts of Victoria and NSW with different temperatures in the area.

Climate analogues is a tool to look at future climate projections for planning adaptation responses for Victorian agriculture.

If climate change models project your region could be 2, 3 or 4 degrees warmer in future due to climate change, that doesn't sound like much does it?

But to get some idea of what your regional climate might be like in future, climate 'analogues' can be used as a useful approach to identify those regions which currently already experience those climate conditions and average temperatures today.

Understanding possible future climates can be useful for agriculture, because it allows insights into possible futures and discussions around the various adaptation options which will allow successful agriculture to continue in future.

Successful farming and agriculture can be found in many climate zones throughout Australia, however for each region the farming system has been designed to suit the existing climate and seasonal variability patterns.

A challenge for farmers today is to be able to imagine possible future climate scenarios (using the latest science based climate change models) and to then map out what changes might be needed to adjust the current farming system so it can remain profitable and sustainable as the climate and seasons change over the coming decades.

For this reason, the climate analogue tool has been used to create some Victoria based case studies for use as discussion starters for local adaptation planning sessions.

The posters below aim to help provide a visual snapshot of what the future climate of localities in Victoria may be like under a plausible, future climate change scenario.

Information presented in the posters was developed using the CSIRO's Climate Change in Australia Analogue Explorer Tool.

What might the climate be like for the following towns in 2030, 2050 and 2090?

Bendigo

Colac

Echuca

Hamilton

Horsham

Swan Hill

Warracknabeal

Wodonga

Wonthaggi

Additional posters of Victorian towns and their analogues are presented at terra nova.

More information on analogues and how they have been used in scenario planning is outlined in the following documents:

For more information please contact the.break@agriculture.vic.gov.au

Page last updated: 22 Jun 2021