The Fast Break – Victoria

Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria

Volume 21 | Issue 3 | 30 March 2026

Sufficient follow-up rainfall has occurred across the northern areas to constitute a break and the country is much greener than normal. Most of the south-west is still waiting for some decent rain to deliver an autumn break. Recent rain in east Gippsland has significantly wet up that part of the world.

This month the Pacific Ocean has continued its steady retreat back to neutrality, with the ocean surface warming up a little. Cloud and wind patterns were closer to normal for most of the month, but the pressure remained lower over northern Australia as the last remnant of this summer’s La Niña. Recently there has been greater westerly wind in the Coral Sea but only north of the Equator.

The Pacific undersea has also warmed a little further to be in a potential pre-El Niño like state. This in no way guarantees that one will form. We would need to see a lot more westerly trade wind activity in the Coral Sea and along the Equator to kick an event off.

The eastern Indian Ocean warmed as more normal winds and less cloud allowed heating of that eastern box of the Indian Ocean Dipole. We need to wait till the end of the wet season for the real intention of the Indian Ocean to be shown.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has been essentially behaving normally throughout March and is also predicted to stay normal over the coming fortnight.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been a very weak feature of the rainfall and is predicted to play little part in rainfall in the coming month.

Pressure has remained lower over southern areas but the pressure ridge remains in a summer position and is well to the south. This needs to move north for frontal activity to become more active.

My assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria is split between likely drier and neutral, and likely to be warmer for the next 3 months.

Soil moisture

Plant-available moisture decile 31 March 2026.

The BoM Australian Water Outlook (AWO) plant-available soil moisture deciles for perennial pasture show that East Gippsland soils have wet up late this month. Much of the state is ranked wetter than normal. The south-west is ranked normal, but probe values remain very low.

In the last 30 days, the Brim stubble paddock increased by 64 percentage points from 29 to 93%. The Yarram pasture site decreased by 23 percentage points from 58 to 35%

Soil moisture probe data can be accessed in real time at Agriculture Victoria’s soil moisture monitoring website.

Probes from Agriculture Victoria, Gecko Clan, Perennial Pasture Systems, Gippsland Agriculture Group and Murrayville Landcare networks.

Model distribution summary for the next 3 months

Predictions for April to June 2026 Victorian rainfall: the outlook from 12 global model forecasts is split between likely drier and neutral.

Predictions for April to June 2026 Victoria temperature: the outlook from 11 global model forecasts is split between likely warmer and neutral.

Model distribution summary for the next 4 to 6 months

Predictions for July to September 2026 Victorian rainfall: the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is for likely drier.

Predictions for July to September 2026 Victorian temperature: the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is for likely warmer.

Model consensus forecast for the next 6 months

Current outlook (31 March 2026)

Current outlook (6 March 2026)

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies

During March the central equatorial Pacific Ocean surface slightly warmed. The relative oceanic values for NINO3 and NINO3.4 were -0.3 and -0.42^oC respectively (29 March), at neutral temperatures.

The Coral Sea to Australia’s northeast remains warm as an enhanced moisture source. Temperatures along the coastal northwest are cooler due to being stirred up by Cyclone Narelle. History says these temperatures usually revert back to their pre cyclone temperature in a few weeks

The Indian Ocean has rapidly warmed especially in the eastern region and isn’t exhibiting any IOD behaviour.  The Dipole Index value is currently at -0.25^oC (29 March). Last month there was a +IOD like pattern but this quickly changed to a warm eastern part of the basin. There is little value in watching the Indian Ocean until after the wet season finishes at the end of April

Sea surface temperatures are the key to the world’s rainfall. For more information on how they are measured, maps created and how to read them, check out our eLearn

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Daily 5 km SST Anomalies (Version 3.1) 28 March 2026.

Equatorial last 30-day subsea temperature anomalies

Average of 27 February to 24 March 2026

The Pacific Ocean equatorial subsurface temperatures have warmed substantially during February, which will be important to watch over coming months to see if it continues towards potential El Niño territory. The westerly wind burst in the western Pacific in January pushed warmer water underneath and over to south America and this is just breaking the surface. However, February trade winds were closer to normal.

The eastern Indian Ocean remains warm to depth, being kept there by the almost constant stronger westerly winds over summer.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

30-day moving SOI: 29 March 2026

The SOI is the difference in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI over March has seen sustained La Niña-like values currently at +10.4 (as of 28 March). This has been because the pressure has been lower over northern Australia, mainly due to tropical weather. The SOI will only be worth watching once the northern wet season is over.

© Commonwealth of Australia 2026. Bureau of Meteorology. Climatology period 1933–92.

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Latest weekly value to 29 March 2026

The DMI is the difference between the temperature of the west and east boxes of the Indian Ocean monitored for the IOD. The DMI has rapidly fallen to a weak negative value −0.25 °C on 29 March) and is neutral. The wet season needs to finish before useful values of the DMI will occur.

© Commonwealth of Australia 2026. Bureau of Meteorology.

Pacific Ocean surface wind anomalies

Operational data surface winds 30-day anomaly for Saturday 28 February to Sunday 29 March 2026

In the western Pacific Ocean, there has been no stronger wind activity south of the Equator, which has stifled any enthusiasm for greater surface warming, particularly in the central Pacific. It remains to be seen what the stronger westerly wind north of the Equator might do. This wind isn’t in the classic position to affect ocean temperatures.

Winds in the eastern Indian Ocean returned to normal during March and rapid warming ensued – possibly due to less wave action.

World cloudiness anomalies

OLR anomalies: Average of 26 February to 28 March 2026

Cloud at the junction of the Date Line and Equator is slightly less than normal but showing a reduced La Niña-like signature. Cloud over northern Australia was abundant and showing a strong La Niña-like signature.

In the Indian Ocean there was less cloud coverage and this, combined with the more normal winds, probably led to the sun rewarming the eastern Indian Ocean.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

AAO: Observed and GFS forecasts. Observations 30 November 2025 to 29 March 2026

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has been doing very little out of the ordinary during March. The SAM is currently neutral and both the NOAA and BoM ACCESS models predict a quick dip and a return to normal.

Source: NOAA.

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO phase diagram for 17 February to 28 March 2026

In the last month the MJO cloud band travelled from north-east of Australia at position 6 to over central America at position 8. Its behaviour has been essentially weak through that journey.

The MJO is predicted to stay away from Australia over the next 30 days, remaining over the Americas and moving to Africa. Such a position often decreases moisture feed into Australia

The MJO is a cloud band travelling in an easterly direction just under the Equator. It often takes around 40 days to complete a circumnavigation and can be a moisture source when it’s north of Australia at positions 5 and 6, particularly in winter and spring in Victoria.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Air pressure

Operational data surface winds 30-day anomaly for Saturday 28 February to Sunday 29 March 2026

In the past 30 days the Sub Tropical Ridge of High Pressure (STR) was centred at a summer latitude over Melbourne. This has not been letting fronts through with much strength. Look to see the pressure ridge moving north, as a sign that the ridge is behaving more normally. A normal autumn position is centred over Adelaide.

Source: BoM.

Air pressure anomalies

Operational data surface winds 30-day anomaly for Saturday 28 February to Sunday 29 March 2026

The Sub Tropical Ridge was lower in pressure over southern Australia during March. Pressure was lower in the north, making it easier to transport moisture down. Lower pressure at Darwin has been affected by cyclone Narelle. Combined with normal pressure at Tahiti, this is why the SOI is positive.

Source: BoM.

Definitions

Read a list of climate acronyms and explanations.

Modelled climate and ocean predictions for Victoria from March 2026-run models

Twelve climate models show their predictions for the next 6 months for the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, rainfall and temperature for Victoria.

View a colour-coded version of these tables [MS Word Document - 77.3 KB]

Our e-learning module How to read the Fast Break table explains it.

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Three ensembles and a statistical model forecast

Image references

Original images used in this document are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology under a Creative Commons 3.0 licence and from the NOAA which has a public domain policy. Annotations highlighting areas of interest have been added by Dale Grey.