The Fast Break – Victoria

Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria

Volume 20 | Issue 2 | 4 March 2025

A significantly wetter February in east Gippsland saw soil moisture rise and perennial pastures using the available soil water. The rest of the state received average to drier rainfall and stored soil moisture was stable. A few perennial pastures used some soil water to keep themselves alive but not provide any growth. Northern cropping paddocks are wetter at depth, while southern pastures exhibit dry profiles at many locations.

The Pacific Ocean is continuing its demise from an attempt at La Niña. Stronger easterly trade winds in the western Pacific holding warmer water in the Coral Sea and less cloud at the Date Line are still reminiscent of La Niña-like behaviour. Pressure patterns, however, are not, with normal air pressure at Darwin. Nearly all climate models are predicting normal to slightly cooler temperatures to persist in the central Pacific. Warmer temperatures have developed in the eastern Pacific due to reversed trade winds in that zone, but these are not consistent with the underlying cooler water.

Ocean temperatures have normalised in the Coral Sea to our north-east due to cyclone activity but remain much warmer to our north and north-west. Nearly all models predict this warmth to continue. The eastern Indian Ocean has been an active cyclone generator this season – all but one have hit land. Most are being steered further out to sea by the easterly flow from high pressures to the south. Cyclone breakdown is an unreliable but possible moisture source for the autumn break.

The Southern Annular Mode has not been a feature of climate this summer and becomes less reliable over autumn.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation cloud wave traversed northern Australia in the first third of February and is not predicted to return until the last third of March. The MJO can be a potential moisture source.

Pressure strength was not a feature over Victoria with average to lower pressure. Pressure positioning, however, has been slightly further south of normal, sending weather systems south and leading to long periods of stable weather.

My assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria is neutral for rainfall (plan for anything). Temperatures are likely to be warmer for the next 3 months.

Soil moisture

Plant available moisture decile – 2 March 2025

The BoM Australian Water Outlook (AWO) deciles for perennial pasture are ranked decile 1 in most of the western third of Victoria. The central third is ranked decile 1 to 3. The eastern third is ranked normal in the upper Murray and wetter at decile 9 to 10 in east Gippsland. The soil moisture probe values are essentially unchanged in most paddocks, with a few perennial pasture paddocks using moisture to keep plants alive. Northern cropping values are generally greater than southern pasture values. The Longwarry chicory declined 13 percentage points from 38% to 25% and the Buchan perennial pasture increased 61 points from 24% to 85%.

Soil moisture probe data can be accessed in real time at Agriculture Victoria’s soil moisture monitoring website.

Probes from Agriculture Victoria, Dookie Land Management Group, Gecko Clan, Perennial Pasture Systems, Gippsland Agriculture Group, Murrayville Landcare and Riverine Plains Inc. networks.

Model distribution summary for the next 3 months

Predicted rainfall: March to May 2025

Predictions for March to May – the outlook from 11 global model forecasts is neutral for rainfall across Victoria.

Predicted temperature: March to May 2025

Predictions for March to May – the outlook from 10 global model forecasts is for likely warmer across Victoria.

Model distribution summary for the next 4 to 6 months

Predicted rainfall: June to Augst 2025

Predictions for June to August – the outlook from 8 global model forecasts is neutral for rainfall across Victoria.

Predicted temperature: June to August 2025

Predictions for June to August – the outlook from 8 global model forecasts is for likely warmer across Victoria.

Model consensus forecast for the next 6 months

Current outlook (28 February)

Previous outlook (21 January)

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies

During February the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface warmed slightly. The oceanic values for NINO3 and NINO3.4 were −0.07°C and −0.4°C respectively (23 February), both neutral. Most models predict the central Pacific to stay neutral or slightly cooler (but not La Niña).

Coral Sea temperatures to our north-east have normalised as Cyclone Alfred has stirred the surface up. History tells us the ocean is likely to return to a warmer state, like it was before the cyclone, in coming weeks.

The Arafura Sea to our north and Timor Sea to the north-west are both warmer than normal as enhanced moisture sources.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, which is normal over summer and the Dipole Mode Index reflects this currently at +0.12°C (23 February). The Pilbara coast off Western Australia has some of the warmest ocean in the world at 31°C, 4 degrees warmer than normal. A number of cyclones have generated in the eastern Indian Ocean this summer and all but one have headed west.

Sea surface temperatures are the key to the world’s rainfall. For more information on how they are measured, maps created and how to read them, check out our eLearn

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Daily 5 km SST Anomalies (Version 3.1) 1 March 2025.

Equatorial Pacific subsea temperature anomalies

Analysis done 1 March 2025

The Pacific Ocean Equatorial subsurface temperature was essentially unchanged during February. A large area of cooler water remains at depth in the east, with warmer water in the west. At some stage in coming months, it would be expected the cold blob would dissipate. Early autumn is too early to tell what the undersea will get up to in 2025. A pattern like this at this time of the year could turn into La Niña, neutral or El Niño.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

30-day moving SOI: 28 February 2025

The SOI moved into La Niña-like values above +7 for much of February but has recently rapidly declined below La Niña threshold. The SOI is currently at −4.4 (as of 28 February). Positive values mainly came from higher pressure at Tahiti rather than lower pressure at Darwin. Remember that SOI values during the northern wet season can be affected by tropical weather and not be representative of the broader pressure patterns around the Equator.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2025. Bureau of Meteorology. Climatology period 1933–92.

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Latest weekly value to 23 February 2025

The DMI is the difference between the temperature of the west and east boxes of ocean monitored for the IOD. The IOD is currently neutral, as is normal in summer (currently +0.12°C on 23 February).

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2025. Bureau of Meteorology.

Pacific Ocean surface wind anomalies

Wind direction and strength anomalies for the last 30 days

Operational data: Surface winds (m/s) 30-day anomaly for Saturday 1 February to Sunday 2 March 2025.

During February enhanced easterly wind in the western Pacific has been keeping warmer water in the Coral Sea and upwelling cooler water in the central Pacific. An unusual reversal of trade winds in the eastern Pacific has calmed the ocean and allowed the sun to heat up the eastern surface.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–96, smoothed with 5-day running mean.) Source: NOAA.

World cloudiness anomalies

OLR anomalies: Average of 29 January to 28 February 2025

Cloud at the junction of the Date Line is less than normal, and greater to the north of Australia, which is like a La Niña. Increased cloud in the Coral Sea is most likely due to tropical Cyclone Alfred and over the Timor Sea from cyclones Zelia and Taliah.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

AAO: Observed and GFS forecasts

3 November 2024 to 2 March 2025

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has been weakly erratic over February, spending time neutral, weakly negative and weakly positive. For the next fortnight NOAA predicts a period of neutrality. In autumn the SAM has historically been an unreliable climate indicator.

Source: NOAA.

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO phase diagram for 20 January to 28 February 2025

In the last 30 days the MJO cloud band moved from the central Indian Ocean across northern Australia (positions 5 and 6) and is currently around Africa. The passage of the MJO kicks off bursts of the northern monsoon and in autumn can be a potential moisture source for autumn break if the right conditions align. The BoM ACCESS model predicts the MJO to get to positions 5 and 6 in the last third of March.

Source: Bureau of Meterology.

Air pressure

Last 30 days air pressure

Sea level pressure (mb) 30-day mean for Saturday 1 February to Sunday 2 March 2025.

In the past 30 days the Sub Tropical Ridge of High Pressure (STR) has been centred over Bass Strait, a position slightly south of the normal summer position of Melbourne. This has been steering weather systems south of Victoria, leading to long periods of stable weather.

Source: NOAA.

Air pressure anomalies

Last 30 days air pressure anomaly

Sea level pressure (mb) 30-day anomaly for Saturday 1 February to Sunday 2 March 2025.

The Sub Tropical Ridge was slightly lower in pressure over Victoria during February, and considerably lower in pressure south of the Great Australian Bight. This has had no impact on the passage of summer storm systems, a feature more likely in winter. The positive SOI was driven by higher pressure at Tahiti rather than lower pressure at Darwin.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–96, smoothed with 5-day running mean.) Source: NOAA.

Climate definitions

Read a list of climate acronyms and explanations.

Modelled climate and ocean predictions for Victoria from February 2025-run models

Twelve climate models show their predictions for the next 6 months for the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, rainfall and temperature for Victoria.

View a colour-coded version of this table (WORD - 76.9 KB)

Our e-learning module How to read the Fast Break table explains this table.

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

*MAM = March, April, May; JJA = June, July , August

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

*MAM = March, April, May; JJA = June, July, August

Three ensembles and a statistical model forecast

Image references

Original images used in this document are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology under a Creative Commons 3.0 licence and from the NOAA which has a public domain policy. Annotations highlighting areas of interest have been added by Dale Grey.