The Fast Break – Victoria

Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria

Volume 21 | Issue 10 | 27 October 2026

Much of the state has experienced a wetter-than-average October to date, with the exception of the coastal south-west and parts of north-east Victoria, which have been drier. It is proving to be a challenging hay-making season, with some cereal and vetch hay quality lower than desired due to rain.

Soil moisture has responded with mixed results of up, down and unchanged. Northern crops and pastures are likely to finish and use the moisture reserves they have. The coastal south=west has lower soil moisture for this time of the year and will require further spring rains. Historically, west Gippsland often doesn’t start to use significant soil water until early December in normal seasons.

The Pacific Ocean continues along as a very strong El Niño, with ocean, pressure, cloud and trade wind responses behaving in the classical fashion. For the length of its existence so far, it has not had the effect on winter and spring rainfall that history or the models expected. El Niño’s effect on summer rainfall has historically been highly variable. In recent weeks the ocean to the north of Australia has normalised rather than being cooler, possibly improving the moisture source.

The Indian Ocean has made a late charge to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like state, with a strong cloud, pressure and wind response arising from a weak ocean temperature differential from east to west. The IOD’s effect usually breaks down in November and recent rain events have seen good moisture feed from both the Indian and Pacific oceans. The whole Indian Ocean is warmer, possibly as an enhanced moisture source when the ducks line up.

The Southern Annular Mode hasn’t been part of the climate mix, sitting in neutral territory and predicted to stay that way for the next fortnight.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation hasn’t been active either, sitting weakly way out west and predicted to be inactive over the next month.

Tropical pressure remains higher, in keeping with the El Niño and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Pressure was centred more often out in the Tasman Sea, making a block capable of slowing up weather systems’ passage. Pressure was higher over Victoria but not to the extent we have seen in previous dry El Niños and +IODs.

My assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria is mixed for rainfall but likely to be warmer for the next 3 months. Most models have predictions of wetter conditions being more likely north and west of Victoria over the next 3 months. It’s plausible that if the right conditions exist, Victoria could get access to some of that increased moisture too.

Soil moisture

Plant-available moisture decile 26 October 2026

The BoM Australian Water Outlook (AWO) modelled plant-available soil moisture deciles for perennial pasture show wetter values in the Mallee, Wimmera and central Gippsland.

Soil is modelled to be drier in the south-west and Alps. Many crops and pastures used significant water this month, with water use varying from −2 to −30 percentage points, with a median of −13%. The Raywood crop used 30 percentage points.

Some areas had higher rainfall and are either yet to use much water or had the losses replaced. Increases in soil moisture ranged from 10% to 88%, with a median of +21%. Lawloit lucerne increased 20 percentage points.

Soil moisture probe data can be accessed in real time at Agriculture Victoria’s soil moisture monitoring website.

Probes from Agriculture Victoria, Gecko Clan, Perennial Pasture Systems, Gippsland Agriculture Group and Murrayville Landcare networks.

Model distribution summary for the next 3 months

Predictions for November 2026 to January 2027 Victorian rainfall – the outlook from 12 global model forecasts is mixed.

Predictions for November 2026 to January 2027 Victoria temperature – the outlook from 11 global model forecasts is for likely warmer.

Model distribution summary for the next 4 to 6 months

Predictions for February to April 2027 Victorian rainfall – the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is neutral.

Predictions for February to April 2027 Victorian temperature – the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is for likely warmer.

Model consensus forecast for the next 6 months

Current outlook (23 October 2026)

Previous outlook (23 September 2026)

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies

During October the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean surface continued to warm and is at a strong El Niño status. The relative oceanic values for NINO3 and NINO3.4 were +4.05 °C and +2.78 °C respectively (18 October).

In recent weeks the amount of cooler water to the north and north-east of Australia has rewarmed to be close to normal over most of its extent, this would indicate the northern moisture source is more normal.

The Indian Ocean is behaving in a positive IOD-like fashion, but the ocean pattern is unconvincing. The Dipole Mode Index value is currently at a strong +IOD value of +0.88 °C (18 October), but is clearly being driven more by African heat rather than Indonesian coolness.

Sea surface temperatures are the key to the world’s rainfall. For more information on how they are measured, maps created and how to read them, check out our eLearn.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Daily 5 km SST Anomalies (Version 3.1) 24 October 2026.

Equatorial last 30-day subsea temperature anomalies

Average of 25 September to 20 October 2026

The Pacific Ocean equatorial subsurface temperatures show a large volume of much warmer than normal water, feeding the surface warming. A region of cooler water in the western Pacific has increased in size and is almost certainly the El Niño switch-off key when the water propagates further eastwards.

The eastern Indian Ocean shows no +IOD-like patterns.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

30-day moving SOI 23 October 2026

The SOI is the difference in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin.

During October the SOI has remained essentially unchanged at a strongly negative value. El Niño air pressure patterns are present around the Equator. Currently at −19.4 (as of 23 October).

Most of the negative signal is coming from higher pressure at Darwin rather than lower pressure at Tahiti.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2026. Bureau of Meteorology. Climatology period 1933–1992.

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Latest weekly value to 18 October 2026

The DMI is the difference between the temperature of the west and east boxes of the Indian Ocean monitored for the IOD.

The DMI has re-risen to a +IOD-like reading of +0.7 °C. This is due to the temperature in the east box being less than the temperature in the western box of ocean.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2026. Bureau of Meteorology.

Pacific Ocean surface wind anomalies

Operational data surface winds 30-day anomaly for Saturdy 26 September to Sunday 25 October 2026

During October, westerly winds continued to behave in an El Niño fashion over the western equatorial Pacific. These winds are pushing warmer water over to the International Date Line and holding it there.

The stronger easterly winds in the eastern Indian Ocean are consistent with a +IOD.

World cloudiness anomalies

OLR anomalies: Average of 24 September to 24 October 2026

Greater cloud at the junction of the Date Line is classic El Niño, as is a lack of cloud over PNG and Indonesia.

In the Indian Ocean, a lack of cloud off Sumatra and greater cloud off Africa looks very +IOD-like.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

AAO: observed and GFS forecasts. Observations 28 June to 25 October 2026

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) spent October in a normal position. SAM his historically had mixed effects in spring on eastern Victoria.

The NOAA and BoM models are in agreement that the SAM will stay neutral for the next fortnight.

Source: NOAA.

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO phase diagram for 15 September to 24 October 2026

In the last month the MJO cloud band has been mainly inactive in the eastern Pacific and over Africa, and remaining weak. Currently, the MJO is weakly situated in the western Indian Ocean.

Over the next 30 days the MJO is predicted to remain inactive, reaching position 8 over Tonga in a very weak state.

The MJO is a cloud band travelling in an easterly direction just under the equator. It often takes around 40 days to complete a circumnavigation and can be a moisture source when it’s north of Australia at positions 5 and 6, particularly in winter and spring in Victoria.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Air pressure

Operational data surface winds 30-day anomaly for Saturday 26 September to Sunday 25 October 2026

In the past 30 days the Sub Tropical Ridge of High Pressure (STR) has spent more time off the eastern coast in the Tasman Sea. A couple of times this has allowed more northerly flow to feed moisture down from the tropics.

Source: BoM.

Air pressure anomalies

Operational data surface winds 30-day anomaly for Saturday 26 September to Sunday 25 October 2026

The Sub Tropical Ridge (STR) decreased its pressure marginally in central Australia as a few complex tropical systems brought moisture from that direction. The pressure remained high over Victoria and out over the Tasman Sea.

Pressure is higher at Darwin and normal over Tahiti, which is why the SOI is negative. Over spring and summer the STR is more variable in its effect compared with winter.

Source: BoM.

Definitions

Read a list of climate acronyms and explanations.

Modelled climate and ocean predictions for Victoria from October 2026-run models

Twelve climate models show their predictions for the next 6 months for the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, rainfall and temperature for Victoria.

View a colour-coded version of these tables [MS Word Document - 77.2 KB]

Our e-learning module How to read the Fast Break table explains it.

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Three ensembles and a statistical model forecast

Image references

Original images used in this document are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology under a Creative Commons 3.0 licence and from the NOAA, which has a public domain policy. Annotations highlighting areas of interest have been added by Dale Grey.