The Fast Break – Victoria

Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria

Volume 21 | Issue 1 | 9 February 2026

Some crops and pastures left soil moisture behind at depth, but there have been few increases in soil moisture since the start of December due to the very dry start to 2026 thus far. Some southern pasture sites used significant stored soil moisture in January.

In the Pacific Ocean, the cooler surface and undersea has abated to be closer to normal. Cloud and pressure patterns have been weakly indicative of a La Niña. A westerly wind burst in the western Pacific in January has sent warmer water underneath the Pacific in an easterly direction, the sort of thing that is needed to start a possible El Niño, but in no way guarantees one forms. Further westerly wind bursts would be needed to fire up and sustain an event, and at least through February further westerly wind bursts seem unlikely – something to watch in coming months.

In the Indian Ocean it’s worth noting that no IOD events occur over summer until May. The warm spring ocean pattern has cooled off to be slightly warm across the basin. A +IOD-like value is based on warmer water off Africa, but no atmospheric indicators are matching this. In fact, stronger westerly wind associated with the MJO in January has been maintaining much warmer water to depth off Sumatra.

The Southern Annular Mode swapped to a predominantly positive phase in January but appears to have had little to no effect on Victoria; maybe only in far East Gippsland.

Pressure was higher south of the Bight, which chased away weather systems that could have affected western Victoria. A number of models have that pattern continuing into autumn, which might explain some drier forecasts.

My assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria is neutral for rainfall but with a few sniffs of drier, and likely to be warmer for the next 3 months.

Soil moisture

Plant-available moisture decile – 30 January 2026

The BoM Australian Water Outlook (AWO) plant available soil moisture deciles for perennial pasture shows drier-than-average soils across most of the state. Central and east Gippsland are closer to normal.

Cropping paddocks remained stable, where many higher rainfall pasture or lucerne paddocks continued to use soil water over January.

In the last 30 days, the Dartmoor lucerne decreased by 29 percentage points from 29% to 0%. The Leongatha dairy pasture decreased by 55 percentage points from 64% to 9%.

Soil moisture probe data can be accessed in real time at Agriculture Victoria’s soil moisture monitoring website.

Probes from Agriculture Victoria, Gecko Clan, Perennial Pasture Systems, Gippsland Agriculture Group and Murrayville Landcare networks.

Model distribution summary for the next 3 months

Predicted rainfall: February to April 2026

Predictions for February to April 2026 – the outlook from 12 global model forecasts is neutral with sniffs of drier.

Predicted temperature: February to April 2026

Predictions for February to April 2026 – the outlook from 11 global model forecasts is for likely warmer across Victoria.

Model distribution summary for the next 4 to 6 months

Predicted rainfall: May to July 2026

Predictions for May to July 2026 Victorian rainfall – the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is split between neutral and likely drier across Victoria.

Predicted temperature: May to July 2026

Predictions for May to July 2026 temperature – the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is for likely warmer across Victoria.

Model consensus forecast for the next 6 months

Current outlook (21 February 2026)

Previous outlook (28 December 2025)

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies

Since November, the central equatorial Pacific Ocean surface has remained stationary. The relative oceanic values for NINO3 and NINO3.4 were -0.70 °C and -0.75 °C respectively (1 February), close to the weak La Niña threshold of -0.8 °C.

The Coral Sea temperature has dissipated to be closer to normal but remains warmer off the Queensland coast. The Arafura Sea to the north of Australia is cooler, most likely due to wind disturbance.

The Indian Ocean is neutral, as is normal for summer, but the Dipole Mode Index is positive, currently at +0.46 °C (1 February). This is based on a warmer African coast rather than a cooler Indonesia. The water off the Pilbara coast is warmer.

Sea surface temperatures are the key to the world’s rainfall. For more information on how they are measured, maps created and how to read them, check out our eLearn

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Daily 5 km SST Anomalies (Version 3.1) 3 February 2026.">

Equatorial last 30-day subsea temperature anomalies

Average of 3 to 28 January 2026

The Pacific Ocean equatorial sub-surface temperatures have mainly changed in the central and eastern Pacific, with the cool anomaly normalising.

A large slug of warmer water exists in the west and this has started a progression eastwards, due to a westerly wind burst in the Coral Sea mid-January.

The eastern Indian Ocean remains warm to depth, being kept there by the almost constant stronger westerly winds over summer.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

30-day moving SOI: 3 February 2026

The SOI is the difference in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI over January has been in La Niña-like values, currently at +11.7 (as of 3 February). This has been because the pressure has been lower over northern Australia and higher over the central Pacific.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2025. Bureau of Meteorology. Climatology period 1933–92.

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Latest weekly value to 1 February 2026

The DMI is the difference between the temperature of the west and east boxes of the Indian Ocean monitored for the IOD. The DMI has risen to a positive value (+0.59 °C on 1 February). In summer no IOD phenomena can form even if the ocean is measuring positive or negative conditions. Warmer water off Africa is driving this value.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2025. Bureau of Meteorology.

Pacific Ocean surface wind anomalies

In the Pacific Ocean, a burst of westerly wind (a reversal) occurred in mid-January associated with the MJO being in the Coral Sea. Westerly wind bursts often kick of the formation of El Niño, but are need to continue to maintain El Niño conditions. Model predictions for a benign MJO in the coming month might mean no amplification of the initial El Niño signal.

There is no image for the surface wind anomalies this month.

World cloudiness anomalies

OLR anomalies: Average of 3 January to 2 February 2026.

Cloud at the junction of the Date Line and Equator is slightly less than normal; combined with the greater cloud to the north of Australia, this is reminiscent of a La Niña-like pattern. The Madden–Julian Oscillation in phases 4 and 5 are probably responsible for much of the extra northern cloud.

In the Indian Ocean there is a lack of cloud across the Equator that is in keeping with the current phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

AAO: Observed and GFS forecasts

Observations 8 October 2025 to 4 February 2026

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) swapped phases at the start of this year, spending most of the time positive. Over summer a positive SAM has historically led to a wetter signal across the eastern half of Victoria, but particularly east Gippsland. During January the NSW south-east coast exhibited a stronger +SAM effect.

Source: NOAA.

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO phase diagram for 25 December 2025 to 2 February 2026

In the last 40 days the MJO cloud band spent most of its time at position 6. A position that can lead to wetter condition in northern areas of Australia. It has now left the region of rain source influence and is out in the western Pacific at position 8.

The MJO is predicted to do very little in the coming 30 days.

The MJO is a cloud band travelling in an easterly direction just under the equator. It often takes around 40 days to complete a circumnavigation and can be a moisture source when its north of Australia at positions 5 and 6, particularly in winter and spring in Victoria.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Air pressure

January air pressure

In the past 30 days the Sub Tropical Ridge of High Pressure (STR) was in a normal latitude centred over Melbourne. High pressure dominated west of Victoria, which put downward pressure on frontal systems coming into western Victoria.

Source: NOAA

Air pressure anomalies

January air pressure anomaly

The Sub Tropical Ridge was lower in pressure over south-east Victoria during January, but with stronger pressure to the south of Tasmania. There was extra northerly troughing, but there wasn’t much moisture associated with it.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–96, smoothed with 5-day running mean.) Source: NOAA

Climate definitions

Read a list of climate acronyms and explanations.

Modelled climate and ocean predictions for Victoria from January 2026-run models

Twelve climate models show their predictions for the next 6 months for the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, rainfall and temperature for Victoria.

View a colour-coded version of these tables [MS Word Document - 80.4 KB]

Our e-learning module How to read the Fast Break table explains it.

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Three ensembles and a statistical model forecast

Image references

Original images used in this document are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology under a Creative Commons 3.0 licence and from the NOAA which has a public domain policy. Annotations highlighting areas of interest have been added by Dale Grey.