The Fast Break – Victoria

In summary

  • Drier and warmer conditions over February see the western half of Victoria in a parched state.
  • Oceans to our tropical north have been warmer and are generating a lot of cyclone activity, but none of this extra moisture has made it to Victoria to date.
  • The Pacific Ocean still exhibits some La Niña-like behaviour but this would not historically affect Victorian autumn rainfall.
  • Pressure positioning south-west of Victoria is sending most weather systems away from the state. This pattern needs to change for the season to kick off.
  • Rainfall predictions are neutral for rainfall and warmer for temperature.

A significantly wetter February in east Gippsland saw soil moisture rise and perennial pastures using the available soil water. The rest of the state received average to drier rainfall and stored soil moisture was stable. A few perennial pastures used some soil water to keep themselves alive but not provide any growth. Northern cropping paddocks are wetter at depth, while southern pastures exhibit dry profiles at many locations.

The Pacific Ocean is continuing its demise from an attempt at La Niña. Stronger easterly trade winds in the western Pacific holding warmer water in the Coral Sea and less cloud at the Date Line are still reminiscent of La Niña-like behaviour. Pressure patterns, however, are not, with normal air pressure at Darwin. Nearly all climate models are predicting normal to slightly cooler temperatures to persist in the central Pacific. Warmer temperatures have developed in the eastern Pacific due to reversed trade winds in that zone, but these are not consistent with the underlying cooler water.

Ocean temperatures have normalised in the Coral Sea to our north-east due to cyclone activity but remain much warmer to our north and north-west. Nearly all models predict this warmth to continue. The eastern Indian Ocean has been an active cyclone generator this season – all but one have hit land. Most are being steered further out to sea by the easterly flow from high pressures to the south. Cyclone breakdown is an unreliable but possible moisture source for the autumn break.

The Southern Annular Mode has not been a feature of climate this summer and becomes less reliable over autumn.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation cloud wave traversed northern Australia in the first third of February and is not predicted to return until the last third of March. The MJO can be a potential moisture source.

Pressure strength was not a feature over Victoria with average to lower pressure. Pressure positioning, however, has been slightly further south of normal, sending weather systems south and leading to long periods of stable weather.

My assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria is neutral for rainfall (plan for anything). Temperatures are likely to be warmer for the next 3 months.

Soil moisture

Plant available moisture decile – 2 March 2025

The BoM Australian Water Outlook (AWO) deciles for perennial pasture are ranked decile 1 in most of the western third of Victoria. The central third is ranked decile 1 to 3. The eastern third is ranked normal in the upper Murray and wetter at decile 9 to 10 in east Gippsland. The soil moisture probe values are essentially unchanged in most paddocks, with a few perennial pasture paddocks using moisture to keep plants alive. Northern cropping values are generally greater than southern pasture values. The Longwarry chicory declined 13 percentage points from 38% to 25% and the Buchan perennial pasture increased 61 points from 24% to 85%.

Soil moisture probe data can be accessed in real time at Agriculture Victoria’s soil moisture monitoring website.

Map of Victoria showing modelled plant available moisture (%), with eastern Victoria showing some soil moisture. Little change in most probe values except large increases in East Gippsland.

Probes from Agriculture Victoria, Dookie Land Management Group, Gecko Clan, Perennial Pasture Systems, Gippsland Agriculture Group, Murrayville Landcare and Riverine Plains Inc. networks.

+ Expand all- Collapse all

Baynton basalt phalaris

0

Dartmoor lucerne

0

Terang perennial

0

Longwarry perennial rye

0

Leongatha perennial

3

Jancourt perennial rye

4

Omeo perennial

4

Pigeon Ponds phalaris

5

Hamilton wheat

5

Strathbogie pasture

5

Lawloit lucerne

8

Bessiebelle perennial

11

Omeo crop

13

Greta phalaris

14

Baynton granite annual

14

Yarram ryegrass

19

Yarram prairie grass

20

Moyston perennial

21

Giffard fodder

22

Longwarry chicory

25

Elmore wheat

26

Greta annual pasture

27

Brim wheat

30

Glenlofty perennial

34

Paradise perennial

39

Lake Rowan

40

Bairnsdale perennial

41

Sheep Hills barley

43

Baynton granite phalaris

44

Raywood canola

53

Cowangie crop

54

Taylors Lake wheat

55

Coonooer Bridge wheat

56

Birchip crop

79

Bairnsdale annual

84

Normanville crop

85

Buchan perennial

85

Cann River perennial

87

Ouyen lupin

100

Speed wheat

100

Model distribution summary for the next 3 months

Predicted rainfall: March to May 2025

Predictions for March to May – the outlook from 11 global model forecasts is neutral for rainfall across Victoria.

Graph showing 2 wetter, 0 neutral/wetter and 9 neutral forecasts for March to May Victorian rainfall.

Predicted temperature: March to May 2025

Predictions for March to May – the outlook from 10 global model forecasts is for likely warmer across Victoria.

Graph showing 9 warmer forecasts and one neutral/warmer forecast for March to May temperature.

Model distribution summary for the next 4 to 6 months

Predicted rainfall: June to Augst 2025

Predictions for June to August – the outlook from 8 global model forecasts is neutral for rainfall across Victoria.

Graph showing 2 wetter and 6 neutral forecasts for June to August Victorian rainfall.

Predicted temperature: June to August 2025

Predictions for June to August – the outlook from 8 global model forecasts is for likely warmer across Victoria.

Graph showing 1 neutral and 7 warmer forecasts for June to August Victorian temperature.

Model consensus forecast for the next 6 months

Current outlook (28 February)

Phenomenon

March–May 2025

June–August 2025

Pacific Ocean

Normal/slightly cool

Normal

Indian Ocean

Slightly warmer

Slightly warmer

Rainfall

Neutral

Neutral

Temperature

Warmer

Warmer

Previous outlook (21 January)

Phenomenon

February–April 2025

May–July 2025

Pacific Ocean

Slightly cool

Mixed

Indian Ocean

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Rainfall

Wetter/neutral

Neutral

Temperature

Warmer

Warmer

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies

During February the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface warmed slightly. The oceanic values for NINO3 and NINO3.4 were −0.07°C and −0.4°C respectively (23 February), both neutral. Most models predict the central Pacific to stay neutral or slightly cooler (but not La Niña).

Coral Sea temperatures to our north-east have normalised as Cyclone Alfred has stirred the surface up. History tells us the ocean is likely to return to a warmer state, like it was before the cyclone, in coming weeks.

The Arafura Sea to our north and Timor Sea to the north-west are both warmer than normal as enhanced moisture sources.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, which is normal over summer and the Dipole Mode Index reflects this currently at +0.12°C (23 February). The Pilbara coast off Western Australia has some of the warmest ocean in the world at 31°C, 4 degrees warmer than normal. A number of cyclones have generated in the eastern Indian Ocean this summer and all but one have headed west.

Sea surface temperatures are the key to the world’s rainfall. For more information on how they are measured, maps created and how to read them, check out our eLearn

Map of the world showing sea surface temperature anomalies. The central equatorial Pacific is cooler. The eastern Pacific is warmer, as are the Arafura and Timor seas, and the Pilbara coast off Western Australia is much warmer.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Daily 5 km SST Anomalies (Version 3.1) 1 March 2025.

Equatorial Pacific subsea temperature anomalies

Analysis done 1 March 2025

The Pacific Ocean Equatorial subsurface temperature was essentially unchanged during February. A large area of cooler water remains at depth in the east, with warmer water in the west. At some stage in coming months, it would be expected the cold blob would dissipate. Early autumn is too early to tell what the undersea will get up to in 2025. A pattern like this at this time of the year could turn into La Niña, neutral or El Niño.

Cross-section of the equatorial Pacific Ocean chart showing a moderate-size region of cooler water in the central and eastern Pacific and a large area of warmer water in the western Pacific.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

30-day moving SOI: 28 February 2025

The SOI moved into La Niña-like values above +7 for much of February but has recently rapidly declined below La Niña threshold. The SOI is currently at −4.4 (as of 28 February). Positive values mainly came from higher pressure at Tahiti rather than lower pressure at Darwin. Remember that SOI values during the northern wet season can be affected by tropical weather and not be representative of the broader pressure patterns around the Equator.

Graph of the SOI shows the value is currently at +4.4.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2025. Bureau of Meteorology. Climatology period 1933–92.

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Latest weekly value to 23 February 2025

The DMI is the difference between the temperature of the west and east boxes of ocean monitored for the IOD. The IOD is currently neutral, as is normal in summer (currently +0.12°C on 23 February).

Graph of the DMI shows the value is currently at +0.12°C.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2025. Bureau of Meteorology.

Pacific Ocean surface wind anomalies

Wind direction and strength anomalies for the last 30 days

Operational data: Surface winds (m/s) 30-day anomaly for Saturday 1 February to Sunday 2 March 2025.

During February enhanced easterly wind in the western Pacific has been keeping warmer water in the Coral Sea and upwelling cooler water in the central Pacific. An unusual reversal of trade winds in the eastern Pacific has calmed the ocean and allowed the sun to heat up the eastern surface.

Map showing enhanced easterly trade winds in the western Pacific.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–96, smoothed with 5-day running mean.) Source: NOAA.

World cloudiness anomalies

OLR anomalies: Average of 29 January to 28 February 2025

Cloud at the junction of the Date Line is less than normal, and greater to the north of Australia, which is like a La Niña. Increased cloud in the Coral Sea is most likely due to tropical Cyclone Alfred and over the Timor Sea from cyclones Zelia and Taliah.

Map of the world showing cloud at the junction of the Date Line is less. An area of greater cloud exists across the seas north of Australia.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

AAO: Observed and GFS forecasts

3 November 2024 to 2 March 2025

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has been weakly erratic over February, spending time neutral, weakly negative and weakly positive. For the next fortnight NOAA predicts a period of neutrality. In autumn the SAM has historically been an unreliable climate indicator.

Graph of the SAM showing a weak negative value of −0.8 with predictions to stay neutral.

Source: NOAA.

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO phase diagram for 20 January to 28 February 2025

In the last 30 days the MJO cloud band moved from the central Indian Ocean across northern Australia (positions 5 and 6) and is currently around Africa. The passage of the MJO kicks off bursts of the northern monsoon and in autumn can be a potential moisture source for autumn break if the right conditions align. The BoM ACCESS model predicts the MJO to get to positions 5 and 6 in the last third of March.

During the last 40 days the MJO has moved from position 3 to position 1, currently at low strength.

Source: Bureau of Meterology.

Air pressure

Last 30 days air pressure

Sea level pressure (mb) 30-day mean for Saturday 1 February to Sunday 2 March 2025.

In the past 30 days the Sub Tropical Ridge of High Pressure (STR) has been centred over Bass Strait, a position slightly south of the normal summer position of Melbourne. This has been steering weather systems south of Victoria, leading to long periods of stable weather.

Map of the world showing the STR of high pressure is centred over Melbourne.

Source: NOAA.

Air pressure anomalies

Last 30 days air pressure anomaly

Sea level pressure (mb) 30-day anomaly for Saturday 1 February to Sunday 2 March 2025.

The Sub Tropical Ridge was slightly lower in pressure over Victoria during February, and considerably lower in pressure south of the Great Australian Bight. This has had no impact on the passage of summer storm systems, a feature more likely in winter. The positive SOI was driven by higher pressure at Tahiti rather than lower pressure at Darwin.

Map of the world showing slightly lower pressure over Victoria and normal pressure in the tropical north.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–96, smoothed with 5-day running mean.) Source: NOAA.

Climate definitions

Read a list of climate acronyms and explanations.

Modelled climate and ocean predictions for Victoria from February 2025-run models

Twelve climate models show their predictions for the next 6 months for the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, rainfall and temperature for Victoria.

View a colour-coded version of this table (WORD - 76.9 KB)

Our e-learning module How to read the Fast Break table explains this table.

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Phenomenon

System 5
ECMWF
Europe

ACCESS-S
BoM
Australia

SINTEX-F
JAMSTEC
Japan

CFSv2
NCEP
USA

Month of run

Feb

Feb

Feb

Feb

Forecast months*

MAM

MAM

MAM

MAM

Rainfall skill MAM

Moderate W/low E

Moderate

Moderate W/low Gipps

Autumn Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Normal

Normal

Normal

Normal

Autumn eastern
Indian Ocean

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Autumn rainfall

Slightly wetter

Neurtral, slightly wetter far E

Neutral

Neutral

Autumn temperature

Neutral, slightly warmer W, warmer coast

Warmer,
slightly warmer NE

Slightly warmer

Slightly warmer

Forecast months*

JJA

JJA

JJA

Winter Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Normal

Normal

Normal

Winter eastern
Indian Ocean

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Winter rainfall

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral, slightly drier SW, Ranges

Winter temperature

Warmer

Slightly warmer

Neutral

Further info

Operational

Operational

Experimental

Operational

*MAM = March, April, May; JJA = June, July , August

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Phenomenon

GEOS-S2S
NASA
USA

EPS
JMA
Japan

CSM1.1m
BCC
China

GloSea5
UKMO
UK

Month of run

Feb

Feb

Feb

Feb

Forecast months*

MAM

MAM

MAM

MAM

Rainfall skill MAM

Moderate

Moderate

Low

Autumn Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Cool (La Niña)

Slightly cool

NA

Slightly cool

Autumn eastern
Indian Ocean

Slightly warm

Normal

NA

Slightly warm

Autumn rainfall

Neutral

Slightly wetter

NA

Neutral, slightly drier SW

Autumn temperature

Slightly warmer

Warmer E,
slightly warmer W

NA

Warmer

Forecast months*

JJA

JJA

JJA

Winter Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Slightly cool

NA

Normal

Winter eastern
Indian Ocean

Slightly warm

NA

Slightly warm

Winter rainfall

Neutral

NA

Neutral

Winter temperature

Slightly warmer

NA

Warmer

Further info

Experimental

Experimental

Operational

Operational

*MAM = March, April, May; JJA = June, July, August

Three ensembles and a statistical model forecast

Phenomenon

NMME
USA

C3S
Europe

MME
APCC
Korea

SOI phase
USQ/Qld
Australia

Month of run

Feb

Feb

Feb

Feb

Forecast months*

MAM

MAM

MAM

MAM

Rainfall skill MAM

Moderate

Autumn Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Slightly cool

Slightly cool

Slightly cool

SOI rising

Autumn eastern
Indian Ocean

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Normal

Autumn rainfall

Neutral

Neutral, slightly wetter far E

Neutral

Neutral

Autumn temperature

Warmer

Warmer S,
slightly warmer N

Warmer

Forecast months*

JJA

JJA

JJA

Winter Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Slightly cool

Normal

Normal

Winter eastern
Indian Ocean

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Slightly warm

Winter rainfall

Slightly wetter

Slightly wetter

Neutral

Winter temperature

Slightly warmer

Warmer S,
slightly warmer N

Slightly warmer, warmer Gipps

Further info

Experimental;
Summary of 8 dynamic models

Experimental;
Summary of 7 dynamic models

Experimental;
Summary of 13 dynamic models

5-phase system based on previous 2 months SOI

*MAM = March, April, May; JJA = June, July, August

Image references

Original images used in this document are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology under a Creative Commons 3.0 licence and from the NOAA which has a public domain policy. Annotations highlighting areas of interest have been added by Dale Grey.

Page last updated: 07 Mar 2025