The Fast Break – Victoria

A wetter-than-normal month in many areas has seen soil moisture rapidly increase particularly in the south-west and west Gippsland. The Mallee and East Gippsland were generally drier. Most areas are predicted to be at normal or wetter-than-normal moisture, with the exception of a region east of the Grampians, where monitored moisture probes confirm there is still plenty of spare room in the bucket, although some farmers would be happy with the good trafficability. Probes rapidly wet up from dry to saturated in the coastal and western south-west regions. Full profiles are the norm in the majority of monitored paddocks and with two months of winter to come, a prolonged period of waterlogging would almost be certain in the lesser drained soils.

The central Pacific Ocean is back to normal temperatures and the undersea has progressively warmed across to the east neutralising the cold, thus any reinvigoration of a La Niña looks some way off, if at all. Only two models keep it going and two others bring one back later in the year. Pressure, ocean and cloud patterns to the north of Australia are still lingering on in a La Niña-like pattern.

The Indian Ocean made some further slow progress towards a weak negative IOD event. The DMI has spent the month close to the threshold. There is warmer water to depth off Sumatra, stronger westerly winds and some more cloud off Sumatra. However, the pressure patterns are not looking quite like a typical −IOD event. It’s still the case that the −IOD is more developed off Java than the classical location off Sumatra. All models predict a −IOD to form and continue for this year’s growing season. Negative IOD’s have historically increased the odds of wetter conditions over most of Victoria, but East Gippsland has had a more erratic historic response.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) spent most of June negative and this had the expected outcome of allowing more frontal activity to pass particularly south of the Divide. Rain day numbers were higher than normal over much of the state.

Pressure patterns in the first half of June were lifted much further north of usual, allowing more storm tracks across Victoria but have recently been further south to equalise to a more normal position over the Bight. Pressure was much lower than normal over Victoria, meaning more rainfall triggers had passed and pressure remains lower to our far north, making it easier to get tropical connections to moisture when the right systems can link up to it.

My assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria shows likely wetter rainfall and neutral temperatures for the next three months.

Soil moisture

Compared to 30 days earlier than 27 June 2022

Probes from Agriculture Victoria, Dookie Land Management Group, Gecko Clan, Perennial Pasture Systems, Riverine Plains Inc. and Wallup Ag. Group networks.

The BoM Australian Water Outlook (AWO) modelled plant available soil moisture for pasture has increased greatly in the south-west and west Gippsland. Only an area east of the Grampians is drier than normal and the probes in this area confirm lower values. The moisture probe network shows many areas at saturation with many increasing this month where capacity existed. Pigeon Ponds increased by a massive 87 percentage points from 13 to 100, and Brim increased by 11 percentage points from 58 to 69.

Map of Victoria showing modelled plant available moisture (%). Most probes are wetter or stable for the month of June.

+ Expand all- Collapse all

About the same for the last 30 days

  • Giffard mixed pasture 100%
  • Normanville 100%
  • Raywood 100%
  • Speed 100%
  • Youanmite 100%
  • Bairnsdale perennial 100%
  • Bairnsdale annual 100%
  • Giffard pasture 100%
  • Rutherglen 100%
  • Taylors Lake Faba Beans 36%
  • Ouyen 99%
  • Sheep Hills 80%
  • Elmore 90%
  • Werrimull 100%
  • Lawloit lucerne 12%

Greater than 10 percentage points wetter for the last 30 days

  • Birchip 95%
  • Brim 69%
  • Goorambat 100%
  • Moyston perennial 26%
  • Coonooer Bridge 95%
  • Baynton phalaris 100%
  • Strathbogie 91%
  • Lake Bolac 32%
  • Paradise perennial 81%
  • Greta annual  100%
  • Glenlofty perennial 65%
  • Hamilton 100%
  • Baynton basalt 100%
  • Greta summer pasture 100%
  • Baynton granite 100%
  • Dartmoor lucerne 100%
  • Yarram ryegrass 100%
  • Longwarry chicory 100%
  • Jancourt ryegrass 100%
  • Pigeon Ponds ryegrass and balansa 100%

Model distribution summary for the next three months

Predicted rainfall – July to September 2022

Predictions for July to September 2022, the outlook from 12 global model forecasts is for likely wetter rainfall across Victoria for the next three months.

Graph showing eight wetter, three neutral/wetter and one neutral model forecast for July to September 2022 Victorian rainfall.

Predicted temperature – July to September 2022

Predictions for July to September 2022, the outlook from 12 global model forecasts is neutral for temperature across Victoria for the next three months.

Graph showing three cooler, one neutral/cooler, six neutral and one neutral/warmer forecast for July to September 2022 Victorian temperature.

Model distribution summary for the next four to six months

Predicted rainfall – October to December 2022

Predictions for October to December 2022, the outlook from nine global model forecasts is for likely wetter rainfall over Victoria for the four-to-six-month period.

Graph showing eight wetter forecasts and one neutral forecast October to December 2022 Victorian rainfall.

Predicted temperature – October to December 2022

Predictions for October to December 2022, the consensus from nine global model forecasts is split between neutral or likely cooler temperature across Victoria for the four-to-six-month period.

Graph showing three cooler, three neutral/cooler neutral and three neutral forecasts for October to December 2022 Victorian temperature.

Model consensus forecast for the next six months

Current outlook (27 June 2022)

Phenomena

July – September 2022

October – December 2022

Pacific Ocean

Slightly cool

Slightly cool

Indian Ocean

Warm (−IOD)

Warm (−IOD)

Rainfall

Wetter

Wetter

Temperature

Neutral

Neutral/Cooler

Previous outlook (26 May 2022)

Phenomena

June – August 2022

September – November 2022

Pacific Ocean

Slightly cool/Cool (La Niña)

Slightly cool

Indian Ocean

Warm (−IOD)

Warm (−IOD)

Rainfall

Wetter

Wetter

Temperature

Neutral/Warmer

Neutral/Cooler

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Daily 5 km SST Anomalies (Version 3.1) 25 June 2022

The Equatorial Pacific Ocean has warmed over June, with NINO3 and NINO3.4 values at −0.18°C and −0.30°C respectively (as of 27 June). The Pacific Ocean has progressively been approaching normal temperatures. The remnants of the La Niña event remain, with warmer water to the north of Australia. The majority of models predict this event is now over, but a few bring it back later in spring. The Dipole Mode Index (DMI) has been bouncing around close to the negative IOD threshold of −0.4 currently at −0.53°C but a classical −IOD eye of warmth off Sumatra is yet to appear. All models predict a type of −IDO to continue on for this year’s growing season but some models have a more Javanese-type warming than the classical Sumatran.

Sea surface temperatures are the key to the world’s rainfall. For more information on how they are measured, maps created and how to read them, check out our eLearn.

Map of the world showing sea surface temperature anomalies, a neutral Pacific Ocean with warm seas north of Australia.

Equatorial Pacific sub-sea temperature anomalies

Analysis done 23 June 2022

The cool Pacific Ocean Equatorial sub-surface temperatures have further eroded with the easterly propagating warm anomaly almost fully across the basin. Only small patches of cooler remain. It would take a La Niña a while to come back from this position.

Cross-section of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean chart showing a progressive warm anomaly moving eastwards and only small patches of cooler remaining.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

30-day moving SOI

The SOI has remained strongly positive throughout June currently +17.3 (at 27 June 2022). Values peaked at a whopping 23, fell and are currently rising again. Pressure patterns around the equator are behaving much like La Niña with lower pressure at Darwin and higher pressure at Tahiti.

.Graph of the SOI shows the value is currently at +17.3.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2022. Bureau of Meteorology

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

The DMI is the difference between the west and east boxes of ocean monitored for the IOD. It has moved above and below the −IOD threshold of −0.4 in the last month (currently −0.53 as of 27 June 2022) and yet to stabilise at negativity. Another month of negative behaviour and it is likely to be classified as an event.

Graph of the DMI shows the value is currently at −0.53°C

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2022. Bureau of Meteorology.

Pacific Ocean surface wind anomalies

Wind direction and strength anomalies for the last 30 days

Operational data: Surface winds (m/s) 30-day anomaly for: Saturday 28 May to Sunday 26 June 2022

Easterly trade winds in the Pacific were close to normal during June. The lack of driving easterly wind force has allowed the central Pacific Ocean surface to neutralise. The westerly wind anomalies continue in the eastern Indian Ocean and will be needed to enhance and sustain a −IOD.

Map showing relatively normal equatorial Pacific Ocean trade winds and a burst of stronger westerly Indian Ocean winds into Sumatra.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–1996, smoothed with five-day running mean) Source: NOAA

World cloudiness anomalies

OLR Anomalies: Average of 26 May to 25 June 2022

A lack of cloud over the international dateline junction with the equator remains as a lingering reminder of the recent La Niña event. An increase in cloud off Sumatra is −IOD like cloud behaviour, but the real pattern seems to be off Java which is not the classic position for greater cloud.

Map of the world showing decreased cloud at the equatorial junction with the dateline and increased cloud to the north west of Australia.

Source: BoM

Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

AAO: Observed and GFS forecasts

Observations 27 February 2022 to 26 June 2022

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has spent June in weak or strong negativity but is currently weakly positive. This has allowed frequent frontal activity to pass across the state particularly south of the Divide. The NOAA and BoM models are both in agreement of a brief strong phase returning to neutrality, but the BoM stays at neutral and NOAA return to weak positivity. A negative SAM in winter would be expected to push fronts closer to southern Victoria, and a positive SAM would pull them away.

Graph of the SAM showing mainly negative values for June.

Source: NOAA

Air pressure

Last 30 days air pressure

Operational data: Sea level pressure (mb) 30-day mean for: Saturday 28 May to Sunday 26 June 2022

In the past 30 days, the Sub Tropical Ridge of High Pressure (STR) has been showing normal behaviour, having been centred over the Bight. This has allowed frequent fronts across, particularly in coastal south-west Victoria.

Map of the world showing the STR of high pressure at a normal position for winter.

Source: NOAA

Air pressure anomalies

Last 30 days air pressure anomaly

Operational data: Sea level pressure (mb) 30-day anomaly for: Saturday 28 May to Sunday 26 June 2022

The sub-tropical ridge of high pressure has been lower over the whole of Australia and much lower over Victoria. This is indicative of more rain making trigger mechanisms like lows and fronts passing by. Pressure is higher at Tahiti and lower over Darwin, which is why the SOI is positive, indicative of La Niña-like pressure conditions. Lower pressure over East Africa and is not yet in keeping with a −IOD, which would normally see higher pressure in this region.

Map of the world showing lower pressure over Victoria.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–1996, smoothed with five-day running mean). Source: NOAA

Climate definitions

Read a list of climate acronyms and explanations.

Modelled climate and ocean predictions for Victoria from June 2022 run models

Twelve climate models show their predictions for the next six months for the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, rainfall and temperature for Victoria.

View a colour-coded version of this table: Modelled climate and ocean predictions for Victoria from June 2022 run models.

If this table makes no sense, visit our new e-learn which explains it.

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Abbreviations:

JAS = July, August, September

SON = September, October, November

OND = October, November, December

Phenomena

System 5
ECMWF
Europe

ACCESS-S
BoM
Australia

SINTEX-F
JAMSTEC
Japan

CFSv2
NCEP
USA

Month of Run

June

June

June

June

Forecast months*

JAS

JAS

JAS

JAS

Rainfall Skill JAS

Low S/
Moderate N

Moderate

Low S/
Moderate N

Winter Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Slightly cool

Slightly cool

Slightly cool

Normal

Winter Eastern
Indian Ocean

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Slightly warm
(weak −IOD)

Winter Rainfall

Wetter N, slightly
wetter S

Slightly
wetter

Slightly
wetter E,
neutral W

Neutral, slightly
wetter far E

Winter Temperature

Neutral,
slightly cooler NW

Neutral, slightly warmer SW,
slightly cooler Mallee

Neutral

Neutral

Forecast months*

OND

SON

OND

OND

Spring Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Slightly
cool

Slightly
cool

Slightly
cool

Slightly cool

Spring Eastern
Indian Ocean

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Slightly warm
(weak −IOD)

Spring Rainfall

Slightly
wetter

Slightly
wetter

Slightly wetter,
neutral SW

Spring Temperature

Slightly
cooler N, neutral S

Neutral, slightly cooler NE

Neutral

Further Info

Operational

Operational

Experimental

Operational

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

*Abbreviations:

JAS = July, August, September

SON = September, October, November

OND = October, November, December

Phenomena

GEOS-S2S
NASA
USA

EPS
JMA
Japan

CSM1.1m
BCC
China

GloSea5
UKMO
UK

Month of Run

June

June

June

June

Forecast months*

JAS

JAS

JAS

JAS

Rainfall Skill JAS

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate W/High E

Winter Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Cool
(La Niña)

Slightly cool

Slightly cool

Cool
(weak La Niña)

Winter Eastern
Indian Ocean

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Winter Rainfall

Slightly wetter E,
neutral W

Slightly
wetter

Slightly wetter W, neutral E

Slightly
wetter

Winter Temperature

Neutral, slightly warmer NE

Slightly cooler

Slightly
cooler, neutral far E

Slightly cooler, neutral far Gipps

Forecast months*

OND

OND

OND

SON

Spring Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Cool
(La Niña)

Cool
(weak La Niña)

Slightly warm

Cool
(weak La Niña)

Spring Eastern
Indian Ocean

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Spring Rainfall

Slightly
wetter, wetter Alps

Neutral

Wetter, slightly
wetter S Coast

Spring Temperature

Slightly cooler N,
neutral S

Neutral

Slightly cooler

Further Info

Experimental

Experimental

Operational

Operational

Three ensembles and a statistical model forecast

*Abbreviations:

JAS = July, August, September

SON = September, October, November

OND = October, November, December

Phenomena

NMME
USA

C3S
Europe

MME
APCC
Korea

SOI phase
USQ/Qld
Australia

Month of Run

June

June

June

June

Forecast months*

JAS

JAS

JAS

JAS

Rainfall Skill JAS

Moderate/Low SW

Winter Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Slightly cool

Slightly
cool

Slightly
cool

SOI Positive

Winter Eastern
Indian Ocean

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Winter Rainfall

Wetter

Wetter N,
slightly wetter S

Wetter N,
slightly wetter S

Slightly wetter, neutral E Gipps

Winter Temperature

Slightly cooler W, neutral E

Slightly warmer E, neutral W

Neutral, slightly cooler NW

Forecast months*

OND

SON

OND

Spring Pacific Ocean NINO3.4

Cool
(La Niña)

Slightly
cool

Slightly
cool

Spring Eastern
Indian Ocean

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Warm
(−IOD)

Spring Rainfall

Wetter

Wetter

Slightly
wetter

Spring Temperature

Cooler

Slightly cooler N,
neutral S

Cooler N, slightly cooler S

Further Info

Experimental
Summary of 8 dynamic models

Experimental
Summary of 7 dynamic models

Experimental
Summary of 14 dynamic models

5-phase system based on previous 2 months SOI

Image references

Original images used in this document are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology under a Creative Commons 3.0 licence and from the NOAA who have a Public Domain policy. Annotations highlighting areas of interest have been added by Dale Grey.

Page last updated: 29 Jun 2022