The Fast Break – Victoria

Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria

Volume 20 | Issue 3 | 28 March 2025

Isolated storms in the west and heavier rainfall in the east have kicked off germination and increased soil surface moisture but follow-up rainfall to guarantee seedling establishment has not been forthcoming. Only East Gippsland has green feed. Most of the western half of the state is still awaiting the break.

The Pacific Ocean is returning to neutral but due to trade wind activity is exhibiting some divergence from normal in the far west and east. Stronger easterly trade winds in the western Pacific continue to keep warmer water in the Coral Sea. Unusual westerly winds in the eastern Pacific are warming the surface in that location, but this is not representative of the underlying cooler subsurface conditions. Models are predicting the Pacific Ocean to stay neutral for the next 3 months, but this is a time of their lowest accuracy.

The seas to the north of Australia are warmer than normal, which supports the spinning up of cyclones and are an enhanced moisture source. Cyclone activity would normally be expected to decline at the end of April when the northern wet season ceases. Currently the northern monsoon is greatly enhanced, as evidenced by the continuing extensive rain in northern and north-eastern Australia. This is due to the Madden–Julian Oscillation currently being positioned over northern Australia.

The Kimberley region of the Indian Ocean remains much warmer and is also generating cyclones. The eastern Indian Ocean is predicted to stay warmer by nearly all models. Interestingly, a number of models suggest a possible negative IOD in winter. While this could make things wetter, accuracy at predicting IOD events this far out is very poor.

The Southern Annular Mode has spent time in positive phase, which is plausibly pulling the frontal activity south of Victoria. This, combined with pressure patterns still in a summer position forcing fronts away, indicates that something needs to change before the season starts in the west of the state.

My assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria is neutral for rainfall (plan for anything). Temperatures are likely to be warmer for the next 3 months.

Soil moisture

Plant available moisture decile – 27 March 2025

The BoM Australian Water Outlook (AWO) deciles for perennial pasture are ranked wetter in parts of the north-east and Gippsland and drier along the south-west coast and south-east Mallee. Many eastern soil moisture probes increased, in the north-east significantly. The Greta annual pasture increased by 23 percentage points from 27% to 50% and the Baynton phalaris increased 26 points from 0% to 26%.

Soil moisture probe data can be accessed in real time at Agriculture Victoria’s soil moisture monitoring website.

Probes from Agriculture Victoria, Dookie Land Management Group, Gecko Clan, Perennial Pasture Systems, Gippsland Agriculture Group, Murrayville Landcare and Riverine Plains Inc. networks.

Model distribution summary for the next 3 months

Predicted rainfall: April to June 2025

Predictions for April to June – the outlook from 12 global model forecasts is neutral for rainfall across Victoria.

Predicted temperature: April to June 2025

Predictions for April to June – the outlook from 11 global model forecasts is for likely warmer across Victoria.

Model distribution summary for the next 4 to 6 months

Predicted rainfall: July to September 2025

Predictions for July to September – the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is split between neutral or likely wetter rainfall across Victoria.

Predicted temperature: July to September 2025

Predictions for July to September – the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is for likely warmer across Victoria.

Model consensus forecast for the next 6 months

Current outlook (28 March)

Previous outlook (28 February)

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies

During March the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface warmed a little further. The oceanic values for NINO3 and NINO3.4 were +0.38 and −0.12 ^oC respectively (23 March), both neutral. Most models predict the central Pacific to stay neutral for the next 3 months, but this is a time of poor historical accuracy. Warming at the surface of the eastern Pacific has been due to unusual, reversed trade winds in that region.

Coral Sea temperatures to our north-east rewarmed fairly quickly after TC Alfred.

The Arafura Sea to our north and Timor Sea to the northwest are all warmer than normal as enhanced moisture sources.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently behaving in a +IOD like fashion, as it is too early for a proper one to set up. The Dipole Mode Index is currently at +0.45 ^oC (23 March) where the threshold is usually +0.4 ^oC. This value is being driven by the normal temperature off Sumatra. It’s likely this cooler region has been stirred up by cyclonic activity. The atmosphere above this region shows no sign of coupling in a +IOD way. The Kimberley coast off Western Australia has the warmest ocean in the world at 31 ^oC and up to 4 ^oC warmer than normal. Tropical Cyclone Courtney has spun up this month but once again it’s being steered westwards by the pressure positioned in the bight. Another cyclone could hit around Derby but its breakup is only predicted to reach the interior of Western Australia.

Sea surface temperatures are the key to the world’s rainfall. For more information on how they are measured, maps created and how to read them, check out our eLearn

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Daily 5 km SST Anomalies (Version 3.1) 1 March 2025.

Equatorial Pacific subsea temperature anomalies

Analysis done 27 March 2025

The Pacific Ocean Equatorial subsurface temperature has warmed a little, such that the cold blob has shrunk. Shallow surface warming in the eastern Pacific is not consistent with the cooler water below. A pattern like this at this time of the year could turn into La Niña, neutral or El Niño.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

30-day moving SOI: 25 March 2025

The SOI moved into La Niña-like values above +7 at the end of March. The SOI is currently at −10.3 (as of 25 March). Positive values have been derived from much higher pressure at Tahiti and normal pressure at Darwin. Remember, SOI values during the northern wet season can be affected by tropical weather and not be representative of the broader pressure patterns around the Equator.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2025. Bureau of Meteorology. Climatology period 1933–92.

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Latest weekly value to 23 March 2025

The DMI is the difference between the temperature of the west and east boxes of Indian Ocean monitored for the IOD. The IOD is currently positive like (currently +0.45 ^oC on 23 March). This is due to tropical wet season influences and not representative of an actual +IOD, as these can’t form till the end of the wet season in late April.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2025. Bureau of Meteorology.

Pacific Ocean surface wind anomalies

Wind direction and strength anomalies for the last 30 days

Operational data: Surface winds (m/s) 30-day anomaly for Wednesday 26 February to Thursday 27 March 2025.

During March the stronger easterly winds in the western Pacific have been holding warmer water in the Coral Sea. The eastern Pacific Ocean surface has remained warmer due to unusual westerly winds in that region.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–96, smoothed with 5-day running mean.) Source: NOAA.

World cloudiness anomalies

OLR anomalies: Average of 23 February to 25 March 2025

Cloud at the junction of the Date Line is less than normal, and greater to the north of Australia, which is a La Niña-like pattern. Victoria has seen less cloud as it’s been chased away by the high pressure.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

AAO: Observed and GFS forecasts

28 November 2024 to 27 March 2025

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has a moderate positive burst over March and is currently neutral. In the next fortnight NOAA and BoM predict it to stay weakly positive. In autumn the SAM has historically been an unreliable climate indicator but it’s a plausible reason for why frontal activity has been so weak in the south.

Source: NOAA.

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO phase diagram for 14 February to 25 March 2025

In the last 30 days the MJO cloud band moved from Africa across the Indian Ocean to northern Australia, (positions 5 and 6) and is currently to the north-east of Australia. The passage of the MJO kicks off bursts of the northern monsoon (currently very active in northern Australia) and in autumn can be a potential moisture source for an autumn break if the right conditions align. The BoM ACCESS model predicts the MJO to rapidly move over to Africa and stay there, which is not helpful to Victoria.

Source: Bureau of Meterology.

Air pressure

Last 30 days air pressure

Sea level pressure (mb) 30-day mean for Wednesday 26 February to Thursday 27 March 2025.

In the past 30 days the Sub Tropical Ridge of High Pressure (STR) has been centred over Melbourne, which is a normal summer position. Unlike this time last year, Victoria is not being dominated by strong pressure to our south-west. Like most autumns, until the pressure ridge moves north, frontal activity is likely to be supressed.

Source: NOAA.

Air pressure anomalies

Last 30 days air pressure anomaly

Sea level pressure (mb) 30-day anomaly for Wednesday 26 February to Thursday 27 March 2025.

The Sub Tropical Ridge was slightly higher in pressure over and to the south of Victoria during March. This has been sending frontal systems south of the state. Higher pressure at Tahiti and normal pressure at Darwin are why the SOI is positive.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–96, smoothed with 5-day running mean.) Source: NOAA.

Climate definitions

Read a list of climate acronyms and explanations.

Modelled climate and ocean predictions for Victoria from March 2025-run models

Twelve climate models show their predictions for the next 6 months for the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, rainfall and temperature for Victoria.

View a colour-coded version of this table (WORD - 77.3 KB)

Our e-learning module How to read the Fast Break table explains this table.

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

*AMJ = April, May, June; JJA = June, July, August; JAS = July, August, September

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

*AMJ = April, May, June; JJA = June, July, August; JAS = July, August, September

Three ensembles and a statistical model forecast

Image references

Original images used in this document are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology under a Creative Commons 3.0 licence and from the NOAA which has a public domain policy. Annotations highlighting areas of interest have been added by Dale Grey.