The Fast Break – Victoria

Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria

Volume 21 | Issue 2 | 6 March 2026

After a mainly dry first three weeks, high rainfall fell over late February and early March through much of the Mallee, Wimmera and the Northern Country. This significantly increased soil moisture levels and germinated weeds, self-sown crop and pastures. Time will tell whether this is a true break or a false break. Runoff remains negligible in the southwest where the rainfall was lower and soil moisture for this time of year is ranked normal (and dry).

While the Pacific Ocean temperatures made their way back to neutral levels, the atmosphere decided to have a late burst of La Niña like behaviour with pressure, cloud and winds singing from the same hymn sheet.

The Pacific undersea shows signs of warmer water now stretching across the basin which we will need to watch to see where that might lead for later in the year. Trade winds increased in strength over February, whereas for any potential El Niño to form there would need to be a reversing and weakening of the trade winds. Most models suggest sea surface temperatures in the Pacific could warm towards a potential El Niño later in winter, however confidence in the outlooks is lower at this time of the year but it will be something to keep an eye on in the following months.

The Indian Ocean is neutral despite the ocean surface showing a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) like pattern. This has been due to tropical low-pressure disturbance in the area and we need to wait until the end of the wet season in April before any potential +IOD could form. Around half the models surveyed predict a +IOD to form in winter but again the accuracy at predicting the IOD this far out is poor at this time of year.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has been essentially behaving normally throughout February and is also predicted to stay normal over the coming fortnight.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been no feature of the rainfall and is predicted to play little part in rainfall in the coming month.

Pressure conditions have been conducive for rainfall with low pressure troughing possible thanks to Victoria being in the gap between the Western Australian and Tasman Sea highs.

My assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria is split between neutral and likely drier, and likely to be warmer for the next 3 months.

Soil moisture

Plant Available Moisture Decile 4/3/2026

Probes from Agriculture Victoria, Gecko Clan, Perennial Pasture Systems, Gippsland Agriculture Group and Murrayville Landcare networks.

Alt text - Map of Victoria showing modelled plant available moisture deciles with most areas of the state much wetter than average with the coastal southwest and west Gippsland closer to normal. Probe values are above 75% in the northwest but sub 25% in the far southwest.

Caption – The BoM Australian Water Outlook (AWO) plant available soil moisture deciles for perennial pasture shows above average soil moisture over most of the state for this time of year. Areas of the northwest are ranked in the top 1% of years. The far southwest soil moisture levels remain drier but are considered closer to normal for this time of the year.

Soil moisture probes show northwest and northern country cropping paddocks increased to be close to full.

In the last 30 days, the Ouyen crop paddock increased by 73 percentage points from 22 to 95%. The Bairnsdale annual pasture decreased by 8 percentage points from 35 to 27%.

Soil moisture probe data can be accessed in real time at Agriculture Victoria’s soil moisture monitoring website.

Model distribution summary for the next 3 months

Predictions for March to May 2026 Victorian rainfall, the outlook from 12 global model forecasts is split between neutral and likely drier.

Predictions for March to May 2026 Victoria temperature, the outlook from 11 global model forecasts is for likely warmer.

Model distribution summary for the next 4 to 6 months

Predictions for June to August 2026 Victorian rainfall, the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is split between neutral and likely drier.

Predictions for June to August 2026 Victorian temperature, the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is for likely warmer.

Model consensus forecast for the next 6 months

Current outlook (6 March 2026)

Previous outlook (21 February 2026)

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies

During February the central equatorial Pacific Ocean surface slightly warmed. The relative oceanic values for NINO3 and NINO3.4 were -0.43 and -0.67^oC respectively (1 March), now at normal temperatures and below the La Niña threshold of -0.8^oC.

The Coral Sea to Australia’s northeast rewarmed as an enhanced moisture source. Temperatures to the north of Australia are close to normal.

The Indian Ocean is neutral, as is normal for summer, but the Dipole Mode Index has strengthened to be positive, currently at +0.69^oC (1 March). Cooler water off Sumatra and warmer water off Africa shows a +IOD like pattern, but not at a time of year when +IOD’s can form. For this, we would have to wait until the end of the wet season usually at the end of April. The coolness off Indonesia is most likely due to the spin up of tropical lows in that region affecting the surface temperature.

Sea surface temperatures are the key to the world’s rainfall. For more information on how they are measured, maps created and how to read them, check out our eLearn

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Daily 5 km SST Anomalies (Version 3.1) 4 March 2026.">

Equatorial last 30-day subsea temperature anomalies

Average of 2 February to 27 February 2026

The Pacific Ocean equatorial sub-surface temperatures have warmed substantially during February which will be important to watch over coming months to see if it continues towards potential El Niño territory. The westerly wind burst in the western Pacific in January, pushed warmer water underneath and over to south America and this is just breaking the surface. However, February trade winds were closer to normal.

The eastern Indian Ocean remains warm to depth being kept there by the almost constant stronger westerly winds over summer.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

30-day moving SOI: 3 March 2026

The SOI is the difference in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI over February has been in La Niña like values currently at +11.4 (as of 3 March). This has been because the pressure has been lower over northern Australia and higher over the central Pacific.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2026. Bureau of Meteorology. Climatology period 1933–92.

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Latest weekly value to 1 March 2026

The DMI is the difference between the temperature of the west and east boxes of the Indian Ocean monitored for the IOD. The DMI has remained at a positive value (+0.69^oC on 1 March). Despite a +IOD ocean pattern at the moment no IOD phenomena can form until the wet season is over.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2026. Bureau of Meteorology.

Pacific Ocean surface wind anomalies

Operational Data Surface Winds 30-day anomaly for 4 February to Thursday 5 March 2026

In the western Pacific Ocean, easterly trade winds intensified in La Niña like fashion, which helped to rewarm the Coral Sea. This has also stalled the progress of any potential developing El Niño which would need greater westerly trade wind activity to help its formation. In the eastern Indian Ocean stronger westerly wind continued to blow into Indonesia.

World cloudiness anomalies

OLR anomalies: Average of 1 February to 3 March 2026

In the Indian Ocean nothing of note is apparent.

Cloud at the junction of the Date Line and Equator is slightly less than normal; combined with the greater cloud to the north of Australia, this is reminiscent of a La Niña-like pattern. The Madden–Julian Oscillation in phases 4 and 5 are probably responsible for much of the extra northern cloud.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

AAO: Observed and GFS forecasts

Observations 6 November 2025 to 5 March 2026

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has returned to more normal values with just a brief foray into positive territory mid-month. The SAM is currently neutral, and both the NOAA and BoM ACCESS model predict it to stay that way.

Source: NOAA.

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO phase diagram for 23 January to 3 March 2026

In the last 40 days the MJO cloud band spent most of its time at position 6. A position that can lead to wetter condition in northern areas of Australia. It has now left the region of rain source influence and is out in the western Pacific at position 8.

The MJO is predicted to do very little in the coming 30 days.

The MJO is a cloud band travelling in an easterly direction just under the equator. It often takes around 40 days to complete a circumnavigation and can be a moisture source when its north of Australia at positions 5 and 6, particularly in winter and spring in Victoria.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Air pressure

Operational Data Surface Winds 30-day anomaly for Wednesday 4 February to Thursday 5 March 2026

In the past 30 days the Sub Tropical Ridge of High Pressure (STR) was at a normal latitude centred over Bendigo. It will be interesting to see if this early northward migration of the ridge can be maintained. A high pressure dominated of Western Australia, and another sat in the Tasman Sea to our east. These two features meant trough like conditions for tropical moisture transport existed more often.

Source: NOAA

Air pressure anomalies

Operational Data Surface Winds 30-day anomaly for 4 February to 5 March 2026

The Sub Tropical Ridge was lower in pressure over most of Australia during February. Lower pressure at Darwin and higher pressure at Tahiti was why the SOI was positive. Lower pressure at Darwin makes it easier to get tropical moisture to flow south. Lower pressure over Australia suggests a greater existence for trough forming systems sandwiched between the two regions of higher pressure to Australia west and east.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–96, smoothed with 5-day running mean.) Source: NOAA

Definitions

Read a list of climate acronyms and explanations.

Modelled climate and ocean predictions for Victoria from February 2026 run models

Twelve climate models show their predictions for the next 6 months for the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, rainfall and temperature for Victoria.

View a colour-coded version of these tables [MS Word Document - 77.0 KB]

Our e-learning module How to read the Fast Break table explains it.

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Three ensembles and a statistical model forecast

Image references

Original images used in this document are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology under a Creative Commons 3.0 licence and from the NOAA which has a public domain policy. Annotations highlighting areas of interest have been added by Dale Grey.