The Fast Break – Victoria

Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria

Volume 20 | Issue 10 | 10 November 2025

October was drier along the Murray and in East Gippsland, but wetter in the Wimmera and south Gippsland. Pastures and crops used soil water during October, as rainfall was often not enough to sustain rapid growth. Runoff into farm dams in the broader south-west is still inadequate. Recent rain in Gippsland significantly wet up some areas and many dams in west and south Gippsland are now full.

In the Pacific Ocean this month, a weak La Niña made further inroads to coupling with the atmosphere. The ocean surface and depth, cloud patterns, wind patterns and pressure patterns are all behaving La Niña-like. This event is predicted to be short-lived and modelled to end in January. Summer La Niñas have historically increased the chance of rainfall over Victoria.

The Indian Ocean has continued to muck us around with very strong ocean patterns and a less than classical atmospheric response. Winds, cloud and pressure all took some time off in October, but recently the westerly trade winds have picked up again. There has not yet been a classical air pressure response for this event and the extra cloud across the whole Indian Ocean is very atypical for −IOD. Models predict the ocean pattern to start breaking down this month.

The Southern Annular Mode was negative for much of October, which appeared to have the classical effect of drying east Gippsland. The pushing of storm systems closer to the mainland appears to have benefited the south-west, but little activity got very far north of the Great Divide.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation has circuited the globe in the last 40 days to end up to our north-west. This can provide a moisture source for rainfall if the right trigger can get a connection into it.

Pressure patterns are still further north than is normal for spring, which is also helping rainfall systems to pass south of the Great Divide. Victoria was in a trough zone of lower pressure due to a number of storm systems that passed through in October. They were aided by lower pressure in the tropical north for the first time this year, helping to get moisture feed south.

My assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria is split between likely wetter and neutral and likely warmer for the next 3 months. There is a stronger consensus for a wetter east Gippsland.

Soil moisture

Plant-available moisture decile – 9 November 2025

The BoM Australian Water Outlook (AWO) plant-available soil moisture deciles for perennial pasture are average across much of the state. The south-west coast, Wimmera, south Gippsland and Alps are ranked wetter.

Some crops and most pastures used soil water over October, as rainfall was insufficient to meet needs. Many northern crops did not fully utilise soil moisture due to the late start to the season and poorer root growth, with smaller crop canopies.

In the last 30 days the Bessiebelle dairy pasture used 25 percentage points from 97% to 72%. The Yarram and Yarram dairy pasture increased by 30 percentage points and the Longwarry dairy pasture increased by 40 points.

Soil moisture probe data can be accessed in real time at Agriculture Victoria’s soil moisture monitoring website.

Probes from Agriculture Victoria, Dookie Land Management Group, Gecko Clan, Perennial Pasture Systems, Gippsland Agriculture Group, Murrayville Landcare and Riverine Plains Inc. networks.

Model distribution summary for the next 3 months

Predicted rainfall: November 2025 to January 2026

Predictions for November 2025 to January 2026 – the outlook from 12 global model forecasts is split between likely wetter and neutral across Victoria. There is greater consensus for a wetter east Gippsland (sniffs of a positive SAM).

Predicted temperature: November 2025 to January 2026

Predictions for November 2025 to January 2026 – the outlook from 11 global model forecasts is for likely warmer across Victoria.

Model distribution summary for the next 4 to 6 months

Predicted rainfall: February to April 2026

Predictions for February to April 2026 Victorian rainfall – the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is neutral but with some interest in a wetter far east of Victoria.

Predicted temperature: February to April 2026

Predictions for February to April 2026 temperature – the outlook from 10 global model forecasts is for likely warmer across Victoria.

Model consensus forecast for the next 6 months

Current outlook (10 November)

Previous outlook (23 September)

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies

During October the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean surface cooled further. The relative oceanic values for NINO3 and NINO3.4 are −0.74 °C and −0.84 °C, respectively (2 November), close to the weak La Niña threshold of −0.8 °C.

The Coral, Arafura and Timor Sea temperatures are all warmer as an enhanced moisture source.

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole event has been classified as strong in terms of the ocean pattern. The eastern IOD box is much warmer, where African waters are closer to normal. The Dipole Mode Index is currently at −1.94 °C (2 November). The water off Africa was cooler but has warmed in recent weeks. The extent of warmer water out to the central Indian Ocean is not typical of recent −IOD events.

Sea surface temperatures are the key to the world’s rainfall. For more information on how they are measured, maps created and how to read them, check out our eLearn

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Daily 5 km SST Anomalies (Version 3.1) 8 November 2025.

Equatorial last 30-day subsea temperature anomalies

Average of 10 October to 4 November 2025

There is little change to the Pacific Ocean equatorial subsurface temperatures. A cool anomaly at depth in the east is upwelling cooler water into the easterly wind flow off Ecuador.

The western Pacific remains very warm at depth, feeding warmer water surface temperatures in the Coral Sea.

The eastern Indian Ocean is very warm to depth as a result of increased downwelling due to the stronger westerly winds into Sumatra. An area of cooler water is not apparent off Africa.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

30-day moving SOI: 7 November 2025

The pressure at Darwin has finally lowered and the SOI rose rapidly in October to be at +13.6 (as of 7 November). This indicates the pressure patterns are behaving in a La Niña-like fashion, which would be values greater than +7.0.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2025. Bureau of Meteorology. Climatology period 1933–92.

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Latest weekly value to 2 November 2025

The DMI is the difference between the temperature of the west and east boxes of the Indian Ocean monitored for the IOD. The IOD value is currently strongly negative IOD (−1.94 °C on 2 November), where the threshold for −IOD is −0.4 °C. The majority of this negativity is being driven by the warmth off Sumatra with normal temperatures off Africa, although late in October there was some cooling off Africa, which has since neutralised.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2025. Bureau of Meteorology.

Pacific Ocean surface wind anomalies

Wind direction and strength anomalies for the last 30 days

Operational data: Surface winds (m/s) 30-day anomaly for Saturday 11 October to Sunday 9 November 2025.

The trade winds during October were stronger easterly across the western Pacific, helping to keep warmer water in the Coral Sea. Continued stronger easterly winds are a key condition for a functioning La Niña. In the last week they have restrengthened from more normal values.

Stronger westerly winds have reformed this week along the Equator in the Indian Ocean, continuing to keep warmer water piling up off Sumatra, a key feature of a functioning −IOD.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–96, smoothed with 5-day running mean.) Source: NOAA.

World cloudiness anomalies

OLR anomalies: Average of 11 October to 9 November 2025

Cloud at the junction of the Date Line and equator is slightly less than normal; combined with the greater cloud to the north of Australia, this is reminiscent of a La Niña-like pattern.

A larger area of greater cloud runs across the Indian Ocean and is unlike previous −IODs. Usually, the greater cloud pattern is only focused over the warmer water around Sumatra.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

AAO: Observed and GFS forecasts

15 July to 8 November 2025

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) spent further time in negativity during October. The sudden stratospheric warming that occurred in late September has plausibly assisted this to happen, but didn’t exist to affect it in early September. SAM’s effect in spring is erratic, as systems being pushed closer to southern Victoria could be the reason the southern coast rainfall has improved. The strength of this activity has not been great enough to get north of the Great Divide. In a twist of fate, a negative SAM in spring is possibly why east Gippsland has been drier.

Source: NOAA.

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO phase diagram for 29 September to 7 November 2025

In the last 40 days the MJO cloud band traversed across the Indian Ocean and is currently situated to the north-west of Australia with some strength. In this position it can be a moisture source. The BoM ACCESS model predicts the MJO to make a rapid circuit of the globe and be back in a similar position by late November.

The MJO is a cloud band travelling in an easterly direction just under the Equator. It often takes around 40 days to complete a circumnavigation and can be a moisture source when it’s north of Australia at positions 5 and 6.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Air pressure

Last 30 days air pressure

Sea level pressure (mb) 30-day mean for Saturday 11 October to Sunday 9 November 2025.

In the past 30 days the Sub Tropical Ridge of High Pressure (STR) weakened across south-eastern Australia, with Victoria in a trough zone between the Indian and south Pacific Ocean highs. The pressure ridge is also more north of normal and allowing frontal activity across the south, but it wasn’t getting across the Great Divide. Victoria has finally been getting some better connection to the tropics with these pressure setups.

Source: NOAA.

Air pressure anomalies

Last 30 days air pressure anomaly

Sea level pressure (mb) 30-day anomaly for Saturday 11 October to Sunday 9 November 2025.

The Sub Tropical Ridge was lower in pressure over Australia. This was due to a number of rain-bearing systems crossing the state. For the first time this season, the pressure has lowered over the tropical north, which makes moisture easy to transport to Victoria.

Normal pressure at Darwin and slightly higher at Tahiti is why the SOI is positive. A lack of low pressure off Sumatra and high pressure over Africa suggest the −IOD is still not coupling.

(NCEP Operational climatology data: 1985–96, smoothed with 5-day running mean.) Source: NOAA.

Climate definitions

Read a list of climate acronyms and explanations.

Modelled climate and ocean predictions for Victoria from October 2025-run models

Twelve climate models show their predictions for the next 6 months for the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, rainfall and temperature for Victoria.

View a colour-coded version of this table [MS Word Document - 76.6 KB]

Our e-learning module How to read the Fast Break table explains this table.

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

* NDJ = November, December, January; DJF = December, January, February; FMA = February, March, April

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

* NDJ = November, December, FMA = February, March, April; JFM = January, February, March

Three ensembles and a statistical model forecast

Image references

Original images used in this document are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology under a Creative Commons 3.0 licence and from the NOAA which has a public domain policy. Annotations highlighting areas of interest have been added by Dale Grey.