The Fast Break – Victoria

Seasonal climate risk information for Victoria

Volume 21 | Issue 6 | 29 June 2026

Rainfall has been average to wetter over much of Victoria in June but the Mallee and Gippsland have been average or drier. Soil moisture increased in many southwest locations up to saturation and runoff has started. Some locations still have a way to go before saturation. Central and East Gippsland soil moisture probes were essentially unchanged, and values are below 50% full. Temperatures, particularly minimums have been warmer and plant growth is weeks ahead of schedule.

The Pacific Ocean is currently in a coupled El Niño phase. The ocean at the surface and at depth is warmer than normal and models predict it to stay this way at least until November. The massive pool of heat underneath the surface in the El Niño region is not disappearing overnight. This month the atmosphere started to strongly couple with the ocean. A very positive value of the Southern Oscillation Index is evidenced by much higher pressure at Darwin. The cloud pattern at the Dateline and north of Australia are in a classic El Niño pattern. Just the trade winds are not quite in classic El Niño mode, having too much southern aspect and not getting far enough across the Pacific.

The Indian Ocean is currently doing nothing in terms of Dipole behaviour. Despite this, there is warmer water, higher pressure and less cloud across the whole basin. The atmospheric response is not in keeping with the ocean state. Winds are currently normal and if a positive (drier) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is to form, stronger easterly winds would need to appear at Sumatra. Most models predict a positive (drier) IOD to form for spring but some bring it on earlier, it’s an area to watch.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is at a very strong positive value. Luckily this has not meant weather systems being pulled further south of us yet. Strangely (fortunately!) southern Australia is the only location in the southern hemisphere not being influenced by the strong positive SAM.

The Madden Julian Oscillation has not been a moisture source for June but is predicted to suddenly make a burst north of Australia before whisking over to the Americas. It’s possibly going to help the rain event in the first week of July.

Pressure over southern Australia has been favourable with a high-pressure position on average further north of normal allowing storms and fronts through, particularly in the southwest. Gippsland remains shadowed by most of the rain activity as it flows from the west and northwest. Pressure has been lower than normal in the Bight due to the prevalence of rain bearing systems; this would normally lead to higher rainfall in winter.

The situation may seem confusing now, a fully functioning climate driver in drier phase and yet the local rainfall situation is going okay in most areas. Formation of an El Niño is not like a tap and the rain suddenly stops. The events are often a slow burn over 6 months or more. One of the ways El Niño classically affects us, is for the pressure to start increasing over the Bight and to our south. Most models with drier outcomes predict this to occur, so watch those synoptic charts to convince yourself whether this El Niño might be turning into the real deal.

My assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria is for likely drier and likely warmer for the next 3 months.

Soil moisture

Plant-available moisture decile 28 June 2026

The BoM Australian Water Outlook (AWO) plant available soil moisture deciles for perennial pasture shows western areas of the southwest becoming wetter and the Mallee contracting to me more normal. Most of the state is ranked normal. Soil moisture probes mainly increased over June, but a few stayed the same or decreased marginally. Those that increased, rose by a median of 26 percentage points. Some values have reached saturation in the southwest, Central Highlands, and northeast. East Gippsland values stayed close to unchanged and are less than 50% full.

In the last 30 days, the Lime East pasture increased by 63 percentage points from 24 to 87%. The Werrimull crop decreased by 8 percentage points from 84 to 76%.

Soil moisture probe data can be accessed in real time at Agriculture Victoria’s soil moisture monitoring website.

Probes from Agriculture Victoria, Gecko Clan, Perennial Pasture Systems, Gippsland Agriculture Group and Murrayville Landcare networks.

Model distribution summary for the next 3 months

Predictions for July to September 2026 Victorian rainfall, the outlook from 12 global model forecasts is likely drier.

Predictions for July to September 2026 Victoria temperature, the outlook from 11 global model forecasts is for likely warmer.

Model distribution summary for the next 4 to 6 months

Predictions for October to December 2026 Victorian rainfall, the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is for likely drier.

Predictions for October to December 2026 Victorian temperature, the outlook from 9 global model forecasts is for likely warmer.

Model consensus forecast for the next 6 months

Current outlook (26 June 2026)

Previous outlook (27 May 2026)

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies

During June the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean surface continued to warm and went over the +0.8oC threshold for El Niño. The relative oceanic values for NINO3 and NINO3.4 were +1.5 and +1.11oC respectively (21 June).

While seas in Australia’s tropical north appear average, the cloud pattern above them indicates they aren’t condensing the normal amount of moisture.

The Indian Ocean is generally warm across the basin and is neutral for IOD behaviour.  The negative IOD like behaviour in May was short lived. The Dipole Mode Index value is currently at +0.01oC (21 June).

Sea surface temperatures are the key to the world’s rainfall. For more information on how they are measured, maps created and how to read them, check out our eLearn.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Daily 5 km SST Anomalies (Version 3.1) 27 June 2026.

Equatorial last 30-day subsea temperature anomalies

Average of 28 May to 22 June 2026

The Pacific Ocean equatorial sub-surface temperatures show a large volume of warmer than normal water, this is preheating the surface waters in the eastern Pacific where it upwells.

The eastern Indian Ocean shows no pre-IOD-like patterns.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

30-day moving SOI 26 June 2026

The SOI is the difference in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin.

During June the SOI has plummeted to a strongly negative value below the -7 value for El Niño, currently at -27 (as of 26 June). This has been due to very high pressure at Darwin and normal pressure at Tahiti. Higher pressure to our tropical north makes it harder to bring tropical moisture down to Victoria.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2026. Bureau of Meteorology. Climatology period 1933-1992.

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Latest weekly value to 26 June 2026

The DMI is the difference between the temperature of the west and east boxes of the Indian Ocean monitored for the IOD.

The DMI rose back up to normal values after a brief foray being negative. Water rewarmed off the coast of Africa and the warmer water off Sumatra cooled slightly due to the stronger westerly winds abating. Values above +0.4 would be considered positive IOD.

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2026. Bureau of Meteorology.

Pacific Ocean surface wind anomalies

Operational data surface winds 30-day anomaly for Saturday 30 May 2026 to Sunday 28 June 2026

During June more westerly wind bursts occurred in the western Pacific. In El Niño events the reversed trade winds are a common feature of atmospheric coupling with the warmer ocean to the east. Currently the winds are only stronger a third of the way across and have a distinct southerly aspect to them. Historically, functioning El Niño’s have had much stronger westerly winds from the Solomon Islands to the middle of the Pacific.

In the Indian Ocean, winds have been normal for the last month. For a +IOD to kick off, we would expect to see stronger easterly winds off Sumatra.

World cloudiness anomalies

OLR anomalies: Average of 28 May to 27 June 2026

Cloud at the junction of the dateline and equator has rapidly increased. This is in keeping with El Niño as the warmest part of the Pacific Ocean is now sitting in that location evaporating more moisture. The large “banana” of less cloud to the north of Australia is a classic El Niño pattern as well. What’s not apparent is whether this is occurring from the higher pressure in this region, or the ocean temperature, which is still average.

The Indian Ocean is broadly showing less cloud, possible associated with the phases of the MJO through June or perhaps as a result of the higher pressure. A +IOD would see an “eye” of less cloud in the eastern IOD box and an increase in cloud in the African box.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

AAO: observed and GFS forecasts. Observations 1 March 2025 to 28 June 2026

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) has spent June in moderate to strong positive territory. Currently, it’s very strong at a value of +5. In winter this would classically mean the weather systems are more likely to be pulled south. But SAM is a blunt stick measurement and despite lower pressure around Antarctica and higher pressure in the mid latitudes, the pressure over southern Australia has been favourable with many storm and frontal systems passing. The pressure ridge has also been further north which has nullified the SAM pull to south. Both the NOAA and BoM ACCESS models predict the SAM to slowly trend back to normal over the next 2 weeks.

Source: NOAA.

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO phase diagram for 19 May to 27 June 2026

In the last month the MJO cloud band travelled strongly across the Pacific and Atlantic only to disappear as it arrived at the Indian Ocean.

Over the next 30 days the MJO is predicted to appear north of Australia and make a strong run to the eastern Pacific. This could provide a moisture source for Victoria in positions 5 and 6 but is also likely to lead to more westerly wind activity in the Coral Sea.

The MJO is a cloud band travelling in an easterly direction just under the equator. It often takes around 40 days to complete a circumnavigation and can be a moisture source when its north of Australia at positions 5 and 6, particularly in winter and spring in Victoria.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Air pressure

Operational data surface winds 30-day anomaly for Saturday 30 May 2026 to Sunday 28 June 2026

In the past 30 days the Sub Tropical Ridge of High Pressure (STR) averaged a high over eastern Australia that was further north of a normal winter position at the top of the Great Australian Bight. This allowed fronts and storms to come in from the west.

Source: BoM.

Air pressure anomalies

Operational data surface winds 30-day anomaly for Saturday 30 May 2026 to Sunday 28 June 2026

The Sub Tropical Ridge was mixed in pressure over Victora throughout June. Plenty of lows and fronts came across from Western Australia. The lower pressure around Antarctica and the higher pressure at 45^o south latitude is why the SAM is strongly positive. The low pressure over southern Australia sticks out as a fortunate anomaly to that pattern.  In winter lower pressure would normally mean wetter conditions. Pressure is very high for Darwin and normal at Tahiti. This is why the SOI is strongly positive. Pressure is high right across the Indian Ocean for no apparent reason.

Source: BoM.

Definitions

Read a list of climate acronyms and explanations.

Modelled climate and ocean predictions for Victoria from May 2026-run models

Twelve climate models show their predictions for the next 6 months for the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, rainfall and temperature for Victoria.

View a colour-coded version of these tables [MS Word Document - 76.9 KB]

Our e-learning module How to read the Fast Break table explains it.

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Four coupled global circulation model forecasts

Three ensembles and a statistical model forecast

Image references

Original images used in this document are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology under a Creative Commons 3.0 licence and from the NOAA which has a public domain policy. Annotations highlighting areas of interest have been added by Dale Grey.